Here's something to chew over during the holiday state poll drought. What overall outcome in Iowa would most benefit Clark?
Here's what I've come up with
Dean: 29
Gephardt: 27
Kerry: 13
Clark: 7
Kucinich: 6
Uncommitted: 6
Edwards: 6
Lieberman: 5
Other: 1
Assumption:
It's in Clark's interest for the non-Deans to suffer maximally and for Dean not to be too dominant.
Rationale:
- Neither Dean or Gep wins, thus minmizing any potential bump into NH. Gep not being nominally on top likely wounds him mortally (although he stays in until 3 Feb).
- Kerry finishes short of 15%. Although he might pick up delegates at the precinct level, he's still symbolically out of the money. Net neutral impact on NH.
- Clark wins the "I didn't even try" sweepstakes over Lieberman. Seven percent not out of reach due to spontaneous grassroots efforts in IA in absence of official campaign presence. Even better if he manages to squeeze out a delegate at the precinct level
- Edwards and Lieberman suffer the double indignity of coming in behind Kucinich and Uncommitted.