Well, let me start this off by getting a little saccharine and lachrymose (look 'em up, it's good for you). When I used to write the TNPT, it averaged about 2 comments. One was a tip jar. The other was me crying.
Well, then we returned. The first issue of the returned TNPT got 21 comments. The second got 134. You love me, you really love me! Of course, neither got more than 9 recommendations. Stingy aren't we?
But enough about that! The people want more! This issue was going to be about Independent candidates for president in '08. However, upon doing some research, we discovered - nothing interesting. So, I give you...the TNPT take on the Senate races of 2006!
In true TNPT style, coverage is limited and defined by what I find interesting and entertaining. If you're favorite candidate is not mentioned, it's because (a) I've never heard of them, (b) they're boring or (c) you have terrible taste in candidates.
Arizona
Arizona might be moving our way, but it's not there yet. Jon Kyl is popular and the right loves him. Janet Napolitano (the guv) might have made it a race, but she's running for reelection, so...
TNPT's Take - Safe Red
California
Despite Rove's wet dreams, the Governator does not presage any rebirth of the California GOP. Unless they learn the actual lesson taught by Schwarzenegger (nominate a centrist), the GOPers are pretty much doomed as far as California statewide offices go. Add to that the fact that they're going up against one of the most popular politicians in the state (Dianne Feinstein), and you've got a disaster (for them) on your hands. I almost can't be happy. It's like rooting against the Bengals. (My apologies to any Cinci fans out there. I'm very sorry your team is so horrible. And I'm a Lions fan, so I'm allowed to be mean.)
TNPT's Take - Safe Blue
Connecticut
Hooray for Joementum! Despite the wishes of many here, myself included, Lieberman ain't going anywhere, and a primary challenge probably won't materialize. Holy Joe has sky-high numbers and Connecticutians seem to like him. He's staying.
TNPT's Take - Safe Blue
Delaware
Tom Carper is up, and seems to be heading along to reelection. This could change if he gets a strong challenger, but there doesn't seem to be one on the way.
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue
Florida
Despite all the rosy prognostications about the leftward drift of the Cuban vote, increased political participation by retirees shaking in their loafers at the prospect of losing their social security and the ascendency of nip and tuck Miami culture, Florida refuses to move left. While a fairly competetive state at the lower levels, Republicans have so far managed to capture every statewide office but one - Bill Nelson's senate seat. And boy are they lining up to take him out. Her body language is hard to read behind the pancake, but Katherine Harris seems to want it pretty bad, as do a few other assorted congressmen, including Connie Mack IV (how's that for political pedigree?) Despite a great resume (I don't care who you interned for, "astronaut" looks cooler), Nelson is going to have one hell of a fight on his hands.
TNPT's Take - Leans Red
Hawaii
Riding high after electing Linda Lingle in the Slaughter of '02, Hawaii Republicans are jumping out of their coconut bras in anticipation of taking on Dan Akaka. That oughta put the piss back in their coffee.
TNPT's Take - Safe Blue
Indiana
Dick Lugar will still have a job on the first Wednesday of November in 2006.
TNPT's Take - Safe Red
Maine
Susan Collins is by far the weaker of the two RINOs from Maine, but she was able to keep supposed wunderkind Chellie Pingree from taking her office in 2000. Olympia Snowe is running again, and will probably win again. However, the Club for Growth crowd has a taste for rhino, and might try to take her down first. A bruising primary might bring her into range for Democratic snipers, but my blood ain't pumping for this one.
TNPT's Take - Safe Red
Maryland
In dog years, Paul Sarbanes is 504. In politician years, he's barely middle aged. The senator everyone forgets exists probably will run for reelection. If he doesn't, Maryland Dems shouldn't have a problem putting up a small army of eager beavers who dream of never having to fight for a parking spot in D.C.
TNPT's Take - Safe Blue
Massachusetts
Ted Kennedy will be a senator until I die. Republicans want to beat him badly. And I really want a pony.
TNPT's Take - Safe Blue
Michigan
Democrats are still the big guy in the locker room that is Michigan. With Washtenaw County money and Wayne County votes, any Republican waging a statewide battle in the Great Lakes State starts out behind. Despite being a freshman, Debbie Stabenow has done nothing to piss anyone off and will probably be reelected. She knocked off a sitting senator in 2000, and this race should be a little easier.
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue
Minnesota
Rumors of our demise in Minnesota have been greatly exaggerated, to paraphrase the great Twain, and the retirement of 'Duck and Cover' Dayton probably helps us. Kennedy will be tough to beat (and G-d help me if I have to sit through 6 years of hearing, "now we have a Kennedy too" jokes), but he's not immortal. The self-styled rebel Gil Gutknecht would be tougher. Alan Page has been mentioned quite a bit, and a Senator Purple People Eater would be AWESOME. Look to see what the Independence Party-factor does.
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue
Missouri
Look at Jim Talent and tell me he didn't spend about half of his formative years shoved into gym lockers. Missouri is no blue state, but Talent is no Bond. If a good candidate can be found, he will become vulnerable. The edge, however, will remain with him.
TNPT's Take - Leans Red
Mississippi
I will go out on a limb, and predict that Trent Lott gets reelected.
TNPT's Take - Safe Red
Montana
The one bright spot in the Massacre of '04, Montana Democrats seem to have hit upon a formula that works. The current governor, Brian Schweitzer, almost knocked off Conrad Burns in his last election, and the Democrats will try hard for this. Despite the advantage of incumbency, I'm giving it even odds.
TNPT's Take - Purple
Nebraska
Here, we've got a strange one. There's been some talk of Ben Nelson switching parties, but these things generally don't come to pass. If he doesn't, there are plenty of angry young turks waiting to take him out. In a non-presidential race year, Nelson's political affiliation won't be as much of an issue and he is an incumbent, so with reservations I say...
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue
Nevada
I have been telling anyone who will listen that Nevada is going to be the next state to move into the Democratic column, but it won't be with this race. Ensign is a good politician, he's popular and the ace up the Democratic sleeve (LV mayor Oscar Goodman) is being saved for the governor's race. It's not impossible, but the rays of hope might just be train lights
TNPT's Take - Fairly safe Red
New Jersey
Once again, a strange one. Jon Corzine is popular and capable and running for governor in 2005 (NJ does it in off years). If he wins, he will be able to appoint a successor. Looking into my crystal ball I see...hmmm...I see...Yes! He will appoint another Democrat! Without knowing that name, however, it's impossible to make an intelligent prediction. Not that that'll stop me.
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue
New Mexico
Jeff Bingaman is running. Yawn.
TNPT's Take - Safe Blue
New York
No matter what she decides about 2008, Hillary is running for reelection. There are a few GOPers who might make it a race, but it doesn't appear as if the 800lb gorillas among them are taking the bait. She'll keep it if she runs. My only question, and this is just salacious gossip, is whether, in 2007, she'll be Senator Clinton - or Senator Rodham.
TNPT's Take - Safe Blue (even though it makes Hannity's lip quiver)
North Dakota
Unbelievably, North Dakota a state. Even more unbelievably, it has two Democratic senators. While they'll never be safe, Kent Conrad doesn't seem to be in a whole lot of trouble. Once again, it all depends on the challenger he draws. As of now...
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue
Ohio
Ohio was our Waterloo, and the revenge factor has alot of Dems motivated. It might win us the governor's mansion, but DeWine is still safe. No matter who gets nominated, they aren't helped by the anemic state of the Buckeye Democratic Party. There are candidates out there, Marcy Kaptur, Sherrod Brown, Jerry Springer (Heaven forfend), but none have come out and gone for it yet. With anyone but Springer or Fingerhut...
TNPT's Take - Leans Red
Pennsylvania
Every Democrat in the country wants Santorum's head on their wall, but only a few of them live in Pennsylvania. I won't get into the debate about nominating a pro-lifer, but Bob Casey seems to be who it's gonna be. Santorum is not as vulnerable as people here think he is, but he is vulnerable. Casey will take away his abortion issue, and could take him out. Pennsylvania is one of the most pro-life states in the nation, so it might be a bullet Dems have to bite.
TNPT's Take - Purple (with the right candidate - and I'm not saying who the right candidate is)
Rhode Island
I really liked the older Chaffee, he was a great environmentalist. That being said, I have nothing invested in Linc. His poll numbers have been mediocre lately, and the irritatingly ambitious RI Sec State Matt Brown will take him on (though he'll have a primary to get past). Rhode Island (and Providence Plantation) lean left, but they like their old families. Chaffee isn't exactly red, but I'm gong to say...
TNPT's Take - Leans Red
Tennessee
Bill Frist is almost definitely retiring, and almost definitely going to run for president. Harold Ford is who most of the talk is about. He's a good candidate, if a little cozy with the conservatives. Don't be surprised if another big name gets in. My bet is Al Gore. Tennessee is a definite red state, but the Democrats have been strong here lately.
TNPT's Take - Purple
Texas
Kay Bailey Hutchison is probably going to run for governor. A Republican will win her seat. Texas is Republican country. End of story, end of analysis.
TNPT's Take - Safe Red
Utah
The Democrats in Utah should change their symbol to the Unicorn.
TNPT's Take - Safe Red
Vermont
Jim Jeffords is an institution in Vermont. There's been some talk of his retirement, but he swears he's running and is endorsed by Howard Dean and the Republican governor of Vermont, Jim Douglas, who has said he won't support a GOP challenger to the Independent. If Jeffords is full of crap (and he is a politician), Bernie Sanders will get into the race so fast people's heads will spin. Another institution, if Sanders gets a shot, the seat would go a very different kind of red.
TNPT's Take If Jeffords is in, Safe (what color are independents?)
Virginia
George Allen wants to run for President. Mark Warner can't decide if he wants to be President or a Senator. Neither one wants to lose to the other. Folks, they don't get any more interesting than this. Warner has run ahead of Allen in some polls, and is very popular, but winning the seat will effectively take him out of contention for president (at least in '08). He'll be chewing his nails for quite awhile, but my bet is he gets in. If he does, I say...
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue (it shocks me as well)
Washington
They haven't given up on the gov yet, but Washington Republicans are out for blood. Still, Maria Cantwell is a much stronger candidate than Governor Gregoire was (not to mention, incumbency, incumbency, incumbency). This will be a revenge race for the GOPers. Still, they would do better to remember that "la vengeance est un plat qui se mange froid." They'll lose this one.
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue
West Virginia
When Robert Byrd decides to retire, we can worry about this one. Word is he's running. Word is, he'll win.
TNPT's Take - Safe Blue
Wisconsin
I worry about Wisconsin. I could enjoy cheese for a week after it was so close in November. Wisconsin might well go red in a few years, but if Kohl can avoid drawing a top-tier challenger, he'll keep his day job.
TNPT's Take - Leans Blue
Wyoming
Wyoming. The single most Republican state in the nation. Need I say more?
TNPT's Take - Safe Red