Thanks to the essential
Political Wire, it has been confirmed what political pundits have been saying for weeks: After winning six consecutive citywide elections
Jim Hahn is about to lose the first election of his life. In the
latest SurveyUSA poll of 1200 voters (409 classified as likely to vote) these are the results:
Antonio Villaraigosa, 36%
Mayor James Hahn, 19%
Bernard Parks, 15%
Bob Hertzberg, 14%
Richard Alarcon, 6%
The margin of error is +/- 4.9%, so really there is a 3-way tie for second. By looking at the cross-tabs you see that Parks is sucking most of the African-American votes out of the Mayor's column (57%-19%) while Villaraigosa keeps 57% of the Hispanic vote and the other candidates basically split the rest. Among White voters, Villaraigosa has a statistically insignificant lead (30%) ahead of Hertzberg (26%) and Hahn (21%). The election is 13 days away: Tuesday March 8.