From
The Preston Caldwell Political Blog
Summary of recent polls
The Popular Vote
The Popular Vote Average is Kerry 50.33%, Bush 44.66% with 3.33% undecided. I used the Time, AP, and Dem. Corps Poll. Assuming that the undecided voters break 2-1 against the incumbent, Kerry would likely win 52.22% to 45.77% or by about 6.45%, with the other candidates garnishing a combined 2%.
The Electoral Vote
Kerry 321 EC Votes
(278 Likely )
(196 Solid)
Bush 204 EC Votes
(152 Likely)
(120 Solid)
6 EC Votes Tied
7 EC Votes No Polls Available
State Polls I used
Here's what some other sites have -
DC's Political Report
Kerry 264 EC Votes Bush 175 EC Votes
Too Close too call 82 EC Votes
Electoral Vote Predictor
Kerry 307 EC Votes Bush 231 EC Votes