More details on my must-win math:
The states I assume we'll win:
ME, VT, MA, CT, RI, DE, DC, MD, NY, NJ, MI, IL, OR, WA, NM, HI
=157 Electoral Votes
Must win PA and CA
=233 EV
Pick one to lose (with EV totals if we win all 5 but lose one of these states)
Iowa (268)
Minnesota (265)
Wisconsin (265)
West Virginia (270*
Arkansas (269) <-- the dreaded tie.
New Hampshire (271
*Also note that Nebraska and Maine split their electors. Good for us in NE, bad in Maine. I am calling it a wash, but that is why 270 or 271 is NOT GOOD ENOUGH. So we go to our next category...
Pick one to win. We need one more in the bag:
AZ, NV, OH, FL, MO, CO
All of these (even Nevada)have at least 5 electoral votes and well beyond any margin for error.
Please refute my math or make a counter-argument, but I think the mission is pretty well laid out and there isn't a lot of room.