Yuck. Only 12 days gone by, I’m still startled to hear "President Obama" on the news, and I choose to step back into Bush territory. Why?
As an answer, here’s how Israel’s liberal daily Haaretz chose to bid farewell to Bush on January 20th:
Bush has had his share of mistakes and failures, but in the pantheon of American governments... he is worthy of being remembered as a dedicated friend who helped Israel.
And these are the liberals - Israelis who actually like Obama. You can imagine what the right-wing majority thinks.
For me, setting this record straight is personal. Heck, this guy has demolished my country. I won’t let him get away remembered as a "dedicated friend". In 2002 when I came for studies in America, I was sure – positive – that by the time I’m done, the temporary insanity that took hold of Israel-Palestine would be gone. The single person most responsible for the insanity continuing – and getting worse - is George W. Bush.
But instead of flinging accusations at that cute pantheonish W, I will take the evidence-based approach below the fold.
Why "Good for Israel?"
Hey, Bush was US President, who cares if he was "good for Israel" or not?
I can’t fault anyone for asking this question. Fortunately, the question how good Bush’s Israel-Palestine policies were for America, is pretty much settled now by the clouds of white phosphorous over Gaza.
Any President whose lame-duck period is exploited as a "civilian carnage Toyotathon", to quote the indomitable John Stewart – has clearly not furthered American interests in the said region. And if the Prime Minister of another country – be it even the closest ally – can brag that he orders around and shuts up the President of the United States, and in the same breath practically piss in the Secretary of State’s face – and get away with it, totally – the whole affair reflects very poorly on the Presidency and on the US’s international standing. So with respect to American interests, Bush has been at least as disastrous on Israel-Palestine as he has been anywhere else.
However, from the narrow aspect of Israel’s own interests the question remains: was George W. Bush "good for the Jews", as we say? No foreign nation is more important to us than the United States – which foots the bill for a large (and hard-to-count) chunk of our national budget, and vetoes left and right for us in the UN Security Council. In fact, it is hard to think of a current relationship between two sovereign, formally separate nations, more intimate than Israel and the US. So the question does make sense. And Israelis (and Americans who care about Israel) do ask it about American leaders.
So: was Bush really "a good friend" for Israel, in the practical bottom-line sense? Well, an interesting place to start could be to compare what happened to Israel during Bush years, to what happened during other Presidents’ years. And then look more closely at whether and how the US was related to these events.
A formidable project no doubt. But investing my time in no-gain projects has become a specialty of mine as of late. So I chose to go all the way back to Lyndon Johnson (let’s assume that 1963 is far enough in the past). The list of events can be tiring, or not. You may find the diary quite a useful refresher with all that goes on there currently (including an election next week). I'm not providing a zillion links - there's a limit to how much work I can do on this. If you see an unfamiliar term, do the "copy-paste-Google" thing.
I’ll give you a teaser right now though; surprisingly enough, Bush does not emerge as the distinct worst-of-the-worst-for-Israel President. Oh, he’s bad enough all right; terrible. As bad on Israel-Palestine as he was everywhere else, if not more. But it seems that American Presidents specialize at being bad for Israel. Kind of funny, considering that practically all those I checked (save for Bush the Elder) were considered "great friends" when they were in office.
In a nutshell, there is a tough three-way competition in the "worst for Israel" category – with Bush being one of them. Who are the other two? And what lessons can we learn for the future? You’ll have to read. I begin with just the raw events, almost without mention of how the US was involved in them. Here goes.
The Raw Data
Lyndon Johnson, 11/1963-1/1969
Major geopolitical events:
June 1967 – War. Israel defeats Egypt, Jordan and Syria and takes over vast territories. This includes the densely populated West Bank and Gaza, where civil unrest and guerrilla resistance ensues. East Jerusalem (also taken in the war) annexed by Israel. Most of the Soviet bloc cuts off ties with Israel.
Late 1968 – Egypt launches a war of attrition along the Suez-Canal ceasefire line; war will continue about two years.
Domestic:
Prosperity slides into recession in 1966 as German reparation money runs out - then soars back to a post-1967 boom that will be described under Nixon. Politically, the Labor party continues to dominate (it has ruled continuously since independence in 1948). Government-sponsored settlements in the newly Occupied Territories – especially in East Jerusalem.
Richard Nixon, 1/1969-8/1974
Major geopolitical events:
Palestinians emerge as a separate force, launching guerilla attacks from their base in Jordan, and terror attacks worldwide culminating in Munich 1972. In 1970 King Hussein (with Israeli backing) drives Palestinian forces out; they re-establish their base in Lebanon, where 10% of the population are Palestinian refugees.
1973 – War. Egypt and Syria surprise Israel; the IDF manages to defeat Syria and fights Egypt to a draw. In the ceasefire, Israel makes limited retreats from the 1967 lines. The war causes tensions between the superpowers, and brings an Arab oil embargo – which prompts most of the "Third World" to cut off ties with Israel. In 1974 the PLO receives an observer status in the UN, and Arafat gets a hero’s welcome there.
Domestic:
Boom to Bust. Post-1967 boom fueled by Palestinian cheap labor and captive-market consumption, and an ideologically-motivated immigration wave. Post-1973-war bust, with stagflation and an emigration wave. Right-wing Likud bloc makes first appearance. In 1974 PM Golda Meir is forced to resign because of the war, and a relatively young and inexperienced Yitzhak Rabin takes her place. Settlements continue.
Gerald Ford, 8/1974-1/1977
I am mentioning Ford’s short tenure briefly. The major event of this period happened outside Israel: the Lebanese civil war erupts, sparked by tensions between that country’s Christian elites and the Palestinian refugees. During the war, the PLO gains control of most of south Lebanon.
In Israel itself, the doom-and-gloom continued most of the time, Lebanon-based Palestinian terror continued, with the only gleam of light coming from the daring 1976 IDF raid to release hostages held in a Uganda airport. Settlement activity in the Occupied Territories intensifies, with ideological Orthodox settlers emerging as a formidable political force.
Jimmy Carter, 1/1977-1/1981
Major geopolitical events:
1977-1979: Peace. Sadat-led Egypt and Begin-led Israel embark on the first ever direct, open Arab-Israeli peace talks, culminating in a peace treaty. Israel commits to retreat from the entire Sinai peninsula, evacuating thousands of settlers, and also to retreat its forces from the West Bank and Gaza and set up an autonomy there.
1978 – following the especially grisly "Coastal Highway" PLO terror attack into Israel, Israel invades south Lebanon for the first time since 1948. A UN observation force is set up there after the IDF retreat.
Domestic:
Labor voted out for the first time. New Likud government liberalizes the economy, creating a short-term sense of wealth which immediately leads to runaway inflation and debt. West Bank settlements boom, with administrative measures taken to integrate settlers into ordinary Israeli civilian systems.
Ronald Reagan, 1/1981-1/1989
Major geopolitical events:
1981-2: Israel completes its Sinai withdrawal, but stalls and then deserts the Palestinian-autonomy talks mandated by the Egypt agreement. Meanwhile Sadat is assassinated by Muslim extremists and Mubarak takes his place.
1981-2: IDF incursions into Lebanon are answered by PLO rocket fire into northern Israel. An informal ceasefire is secretly arranged, and maintained for 10 months.
June 1982: War. Using an assassination attempt of Israel’s England ambassador by a renegade Palestinian faction as a pretext, Israel invades Lebanon to rid its north from the rocket threat. The IDF defeats Palestinian and Syrian forces, and lays a siege on Beirut.
August-September 1982: Lebanon ceasefire mandates the exodus of PLO fighters to Tunisia. Backed by IDF power, Israel’s ally Phalange leader Bashir Jemayel elected Lebanon’s president – only to be assassinated a few days later. The IDF then conquers Beirut, and the Phalanges – entrusted with taking over Beirut’s Palestinian refugee camp – perpetrate the Sabra and Shatila massacre.
1982-1985: The IDF in Lebanon faces continuous guerrilla attacks, increasingly led by a new Shi’ite force called Hizbullah. In 1985 the IDF retreats most of its forces, but leaves some in a "security belt", where they supervise an Israeli-funded and trained "South Lebanon Army" (SLA) militia.
1987-1988: The West Bank and Gaza erupt in the Intifada – beginning with mass riots, followed by organized civil resistance such as strikes and tax boycotts, and sporadic terror attacks. Hundreds of Palestinians and a few dozen Israelis are killed.
Domestic:
The 80’s are characterized by political paralysis and increasing intra-Jewish rifts. Early on Ariel Sharon dominates the government, and the Lebanon war is his brainchild. When it turns sour, he is gradually sidelined. In 1983 PM Begin mysteriously retreats to his home, and later resigns. Only after his death it is revealed that he had lost his sanity. Lebanon war and overall mismanagement leads to a stock-exchange collapse and bank bailout in 1983, and 450% inflation in 1984, with Israel at risk of loan default. Western-style consumerism sets in. Settlements continue. In 1985 economy stabilizes somewhat, only to slide into recession when Intifada hits.
George H.W. Bush, 1/1989-1/1993
Major geopolitical events:
1989-1993: Palestinian Intifada causes the IDF to increasingly remain confined to its bases and to guarding settlers, except for covert raids and assassination hits. Consequently, mass Palestinian popular protest subsides and terrorism and guerrilla take its place as the dominant modes.
1991 – War. In response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, America launches the Gulf War, during which Saddam lobs rockets at Israel in order to gain popularity in the Arab street. Israel suffers few casualties, but the economy grinds to a halt during the war as the main urban regions around Tel-Aviv are emptied of most inhabitants.
1991 – In the war’s aftermath, Bush convenes the Madrid peace conference, which Likud-led Israel reluctantly joins. The Palestinian delegation is composed of local civic leaders, pre-vetted by Israel and the West as unrelated to terror.
Domestic:
This period is characterized by public weariness – of Intifada, of polarization, of political stalemate and of corruption. The yearning for Western-style normalcy eventually breaks the political deadlock, with a 1992 landslide victory for Rabin-led Labor. The economy begins to disengage itself from the now-unruly Palestinian workers, by importing cheap labor from other poor countries. Within a couple of years they number in the hundreds of thousands. A huge immigration wave from former Soviet lands begins.
Bill Clinton, 1/1993-1/2001
Major geopolitical events:
1993-2001: the Oslo years. A direct agreement on Palestinian autonomy and framework towards two-state peace, stumbles into extremist violence from both sides, including the advent of suicide bombings in 1994-96. Rabin’s 1995 murder by a Jewish extremist eventually leads to a right-wing Netanyahu government that stalls the process further. In the late 90’s Labor’s Barak, coming to power against a background of renewed calm and hope, promises to revive it – but instead brings it to a head with a take-it-or-leave-it showdown at Camp David 2000. Failure leads to the Second Intifada erupting in fall 2000. The Intifada is answered by the IDF with far more lethal force than the 1987-88 version, and also with total disruption of Palestinian economy through blockades and closures. Palestinian riots quickly give way to terror and guerilla attacks. By the time Bush steps in, several hundred Palestinians and several dozen Israelis had been killed, but the two sides are still talking and suicide bombings haven’t resumed yet.
1994- Peace. As a side-benefit of the Oslo process, Jordan – which for years had maintained de-facto coexistence with Israel – signs a formal peace deal. Israel also begins forging ties with other Arab countries, mostly in the Gulf and North Africa. Ties with many Third World countries, cut off in 1967 or 1973, also resume (the former Soviet bloc resumed ties with Israel as that bloc gradually disintegrated in the late 1980’s).
1993-2001: Lebanon. Hizbullah’s increasingly effective guerilla frustrates the IDF, and despite a couple of crackdown attempts (1993 and 1996, both by Labor governments), in 2000 the IDF ultimately retreats unilaterally from its "security belt". The retreat is hasty and disorganized, prompted by the overnight dissolution of most SLA militia units via covert Hizbullah work. The triumphant Hizbullah sets up shop right on the border, and in fall 2000 it pitches into the second-Intifada melee by taking two IDF soldier POWs.
Domestic:
As can be seen above, during this period the domestic and geopolitical intermix with each other more than before. Economically the mid-90’s are the most prosperous for the country since the 1960’s, and Israel becomes a hi-tech power with quasi-American lifestyle for the middle and upper classes. Netanyahu introduces Republican-style economic policies that begin shredding the welfare state. Economic gaps greatly increase, and other social rifts continue playing a major role. Politically the public vacillates between left and right.
George W. Bush, 1/2001-1/2009
Gaaah. Here comes the "dedicated friend":
2001-2002: Sharon defeats Barak to become PM, closes all diplomatic channels to the Palestinian Authority and gradually escalates military action. Palestinian society and politics descend into chaos; suicide bombings resume, and by late 2001 terror attacks inside Israel reach unprecedented levels. In March 2002, the IDF invades West Bank cities, effectively killing the Oslo reality. Overall during 2002, several hundred Israelis and over 2,000 Palestinians are killed – most of them civilians.
2002-2005: West Bank suffers under re-Occupation – a bizarre undeclared regime by which the IDF controls the entire territory, conducting raids and operations at will and setting up an extensive system of checkpoints and massive physical barriers inside the West Bank. Yet, the neutered Palestinian Authority whose chief Arafat is imprisoned in his compound until his 2004 death, is still formally in charge of residents’ needs. Against this background, the PA and its "ruling" Fatah party lose political ground to the militant Hamas, which scores major victories in 2005 municipal elections. Moderate Mahmoud Abbas is installed as Palestinian PM (and elected President after Arafat’s death). He arranges indirect Hamas ceasefires with Israel – the longest of which lasts through most of 2005. In Gaza the story is a bit different, with a more militarized conflict between IDF and Palestinian factions.
2005-2006: Israel withdraws its Gaza settlers and the IDF forces that guarded them, but neglects to make arrangements with PM Abbas to normalize Gaza’s situation, and the Strip remains imprisoned as Egypt complies to Israeli-American pressure to seal its short border at Rafah. Hamas wins Palestinian elections, and is boycotted by America, Israel and then the rest of the Western world. The ceasefire disintegrates, and escalation leads to Hamas abducting an Israeli POW.
2006 - War. An Israeli punitive campaign against Gaza prompts Hizbullah to make its own move and abduct Israeli POWs as well. The Lebanon II war begins, with the IDF trying to "shock and awe" Lebanese into subduing the Hizbullah. The effort fails, and on the ground Hizbullah manages to halt the major IDF attacks.
2006-2009: Palestinian efforts to form a Hamas-Fatah unity government eventually fail. IN 2007 Hamas pre-empts a US-backed coup attempt in Gaza and eliminates Fatah presence there. Over 100 Palestinians killed in the fighting. Israel tightens the blockade on Gaza. The end result – i.e., the Gaza War - falls under "current events" of which the readers are aware.
Domestic:
The Bush years see an inexorable, steep slide of Israel’s public opinion to the right. One side-effect (or, perhaps, a motivating factor) is that the 1980’s-1990’s internal rifts fade into the background most of the time. Naturally, the rift with Israel’s own Palestinian citizens ("Arab Israelis") deepens, and the Jewish parties repeatedly try to disqualify Arab parties from the elections – a move that is blocked by the court. In 2002 a law is passed which effectively forbids Israeli Palestinians from marrying Occupied Palestinians. This law is upheld by the court.
2001-2003 are deep recession years, and at some point Israel’s currency is inches away from collapse. Netanyahu as finance minister in 2003-2006, uses classic Republican "solutions" to the crisis – privatization, welfare cuts, tax cuts, etc. – improving the "important" economic indicators while poverty and inequality rates soar.
National politics keep breaking new records in corruption scandals and cynical parliamentary horse-trading. In 2005 Sharon sets up the Kadima party, mostly a Likud spin-off with a more centrist image and a couple of ex-Labor figureheads. His successor Olmert is arguably the most corrupt PM in Israeli history, and is finally forced to resign after "one scandal too many". Which brings us to next week’s elections - Netanyahu is front-runner ahead of Kadima, and fascist settler Lieberman neck-and-neck with Labor at 3rd place.
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Whew. Are you still there?
So... let’s see. At face value, one President with a clearly positive raw record (Carter). A few with a mixed one (Johnson, Bush I, Clinton). And no less than three – Nixon, Reagan and W – with a totally abysmal record. A record so bad, that it’s really hard to say who was worse. It seems that nearly all the major bad things of the past 45 years, happened to Israel on these three’s watch.
Coincidence? Are they just "innocent victims of circumstance"? The short answer is no. The long answer will appear in Part II. This diary has been long enough.