As I have predicted elsewhere, Israeli Prime Minister–delegate Binyamin "Bibi" Netanyahu is having some problems forming a coalition by the deadline of April 3 required by Israeli law. For someone so confident that he had the 65 mandates of the "national camp" when the final election results were in, now Bibi looks to be treading water.
Once Kadima head Tzipi Livni said no twice to Netanyahu, it was clear he would have to cobble together his coalition from the parties upon which he was originally relying. (Talks with Labor leader Ehud Barak are apparently going on today, perhaps as I write this, but Barak joining this government could very well cause a split in Labor, and Labor can scarcely afford such division after having made such a poor showing in the election. If Barak does join the government, he is likely to do so on his own and without Labor.)
So that leaves Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party as the junior partner in Netanyahu's burgeoning coalition. Here's the problem: Lieberman is demanding some pretty hefty ministries in exchange for his support. And he has the right to ask; after all, Netanyahu will be fully incapable of forming a government without Lieberman. Of the "three big ministries" (defense, finance, and foreign affairs), Lieberman is reportedly demanding the foreign ministry.
Lieberman as foreign minister. Despite the linked article at Yediot Ahronot's English-language Web site, there is great concern in having Lieberman as Israel's foreign minister. First, Likud bigwig Silvan Shalom had apparently been promised this ministry, and giving it to Lieberman instead might cause another rift in the Likud. But the larger concern is the question of exactly how the Arab nations that do have either official or unofficial back-channel relations with Israel will conduct these relations with a man who told Arab members of the Knesset a year ago that "a new administration will be established and then we will take care of you." Routinely heard at Lieberman's party rallies during the run-up to the February 10 election was the chant "Death to the Arabs" (this last bit of information was provided by Wikipedia, it should be noted, and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt).
When a man is willing to (and does) threaten Arab citizens in his own country, how will the foreign ministers of Jordan and Egypt react to him? How will the representatives of any Arab country react to him? In short, Lieberman as foreign minister could only be made worse by Lieberman as defense minister or — dare I say it — Lieberman as Prime Minister.
But Bibi's problems don't end here. Today Agence France Presse reports that the two farthest-right parties in the current Knesset, National Union and Jewish Home, are demanding the housing and education ministries. While these aren't in the "big three," putting these ministries into the hands of these parties means that the following will happen:
- Settlements will expand on the West Bank.
- Destructions of houses of Arabs in the West Bank will accelerate.
- Gush Emunim and like-minded national-religious yeshivot will get huge funding despite the desire of most Israelis that such schools not get such funding.
And that's just what I can think of off the top of my head.
I do still believe that Bibi will put together a government of 65 MKs. He still has three weeks to do so. But I also believe this government will be a spectacular failure. At least one party will pull out of the government within one year, probably less. If it's a party with 5 seats or more, Bibi will have lost his parliamentary majority.
And so, when Bibi goes with his hat in his hand to Livni to form a new government after this one fails, does he really think she's not going to instead let new elections happen? What would she possibly have to lose?