Cross posted at The Next Hurrah
I've been thinking about Arlen Specter a lot of late. Not because I'm wondering how he'll vote on the nuclear option. Or, for that matter, how he'll vote on Bolton's nomination. Rather, as observers discuss the possible deals every other moderate Republican Senator may be making right now, I'm wondering whether, after a year and a half of reflection, Specter thinks his deal with the devil was worth it or not.
Recall that, in the days when the Democrats were trying to prevent Bush from re-writing overtime rules, Specter was the last hold-out. He and Senator Harkin had included language protecting overtime into the funding bill. Finally, after a lot of arm-twisting, Specter dropped his opposition to Bush's overtime changes, letting the spending bill pass without their measure and with it letting millions lose thier overtime benefits. The assumption, by everyone I talked to, was that Bush would ensure Specter faced no primary competition in exchange for dropping his opposition.
But it didn't work out that way. Specter didn't get the opponent-free primary he might have thought he was getting. Not only did Rove and Bush not manage to convince Toomey to sit out the primary, according to Toomey's campaign, they didn't even ask Toomey not to run.
"They told us that they weren't going to say anything bad about us,"
said the aide, who requested anonymity. "They said that they appreciate
how we've worked well with the White House on many things, but their
policy is their policy."
The aide noted that the White House did not urge Mr. Toomey to give up his primary challenge.
Mind you, it's not like Bush didn't support Specter. He did. Bush
made several visits to campaign for Specter, sent Cheney to raise
money, and reiterated his endorsement a week before the primary. In many ways, Specter's campaign in both the primary and the general ended up being more about Bush than it was about Specter. And if you believe Timothy Carney, Bush's support (and Santorum's) made all the difference in the primary battle:
As I spoke with Schantz, president of "Farmers for Toomey," farmers
in central Pennsylvania were receiving automated phone calls from the
Specter campaign. The calls had the voice of President Bush, endorsing
Specter.
Canvassing voters on Tuesday leaving polling places in Lower Paxton
Township and Newberry Township, almost all of the Specter voters cited
Santorum's and Bush's endorsements as the reason for their votes.
One dentist in Lower Paxton calls himself a conservative and a
pro-lifer, but Bush's relentless campaigning made the dentist think
Bush needed Specter if he was going to win the November election. This
reasoning is faulty, but local media parroted it, and it pervaded the
state enough to push Specter over the top.
[snip]
There can be no doubt about it: Bush and Santorum won this election for
Arlen Specter, and that is exactly what they meant to do.
So why doesn't that count as a fair exchange? Why wouldn't observers look at the deal and judge that Specter got everything he asked for?
Perhaps he did. But then, so did Bush. He got to preserve the notion of incumbency, all the while undercutting Specter's ability to act independently. By winning after a bruising primary against Toomey, for example, Specter already had the fundies gunning to prevent him from heading Judiciary Committee. Well before the primary was even decided, conservatives were plotting ways to deny Specter the Chairmanship. This evolved into a campaign in itself, after Specter made comments about the likelihood of an anti-choice judge getting approved by the Senate. Bush and Rove again supported Specter in the face of the campaign. But that didn't stop it from becoming just that--a campaign, where Specter had to win Republican support yet again.
And when the conflict was finally resolved, it was resolved with Specter sacrificing his principles and independence. Here was the spectacle of a newly-elected Committee Chair, reading a statement that had been vetted by the members of his committee first:
Specter said he felt no pressure to make
his commitments, which he read from a statement that had been cleared
by committee members ahead of time.
Which is how you arrive here, with Specter feeding Frist the judges he wants, when he wants them, to set up the nuclear option. With Specter complaining about the dearth of moderates in the Senate. With Specter and the Democrats still trying to restore overtime.
Specter's support of overtime pay came after both houses of Congress had voted to support it. It was, by all accounts, a winning issue (as retaining the filibuster appears to be right now). But Specter conceded that fight and with it, a lot of his leverage with the Administration.
Specter may, in the end, oppose the nuclear option. But that may be a largely pyrrhic victory for his hopes of moderation.