It was only two months ago that I had gotten a most pessimistic outlook on our Ohio House challengers. Talking to several people in the Ohio Democratic Party establishment, word was that none of the incumbents from either party were really threatened. And without any open seat battles, Ohio's only political question mark was the presidential race.
Two months later, it seems Ohio Dems are feeling a bit more optimistic, especially about three specific races, Ben Konop in the 4th CD, Jane Mitakides in the 3rd, and Jeff Seemann in the 16th.
Coincidentally or not, these three candidates all advertised on Daily Kos, while Seemann has had a strong presence on the site since Day 1 of his candidacy. And while this site's influence is debatable -- most important for Seemann, less important for the other two -- it does suggest that their online aggressiveness is matched by aggressiveness in their offline campaigning. And aggressiveness oftentimes leads to results.
It's no mystery that the Ohio economy is in shambles, and these three candidates are making the most of the Republican-made disaster to improve their chances from "longshots" to "races to watch".
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Ben Konop
Two months ago I was told he had no organization, was over his head, too young, no local support, heavy Republican district, and all around lost cause.
So I was surprised to hear his name come up, with no prompting, this time around -- "The kid has gotten it together". To be sure, this is still a heavy Republican district, but long-time ethically-challenged incumbent Michael Oxley is apparently not his usual lock, and state Dems are starting to pay closer attention to the race.
One local media bigwig wrote me:
Oxley's problem is that he has lived in a million plus dollar home at 7629 Huntmaster Lane in Mclean, Virginia for the last 18 years. During much of that time, his wife, Pat, has sold northern Virginia real estate from Mclean's Weichert office. One of his republican primary candidates shamed Oxley into buying a tiny condo last election, but it's doubtful he's ever set foot in it. It's a wonderful campaign issue. There is another ballot issue involving the closure of a large prison in Allen County, called Lima Correctional Institution. Nearly 500 people lost their jobs and the employees are convinced Oxley didn't do much of anything to stop the closure. They've rallied around Ben and crossed over in the primaries, doubling the democratic vote in the county.
The union's president is very much in Ben's corner and is also a good friend of mine. There are a half-dozen other facilities in the district which are strong potential supporters as well. The most powerful and popular men in three of Ben's counties have agreed to campaign for him-a republican, a democrat and an independent.
This was a race that was considered a joke, but sentiments are changing.
(My previous writeup on this race.)
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Jane Mitakides
This was always considered one of the better Dem challenges, though the state Dem establishment wasn't too optimistic about the race. However, Mitakides raised over $127K in the last quarter, and word is her fundraising is still kicking. And Mitakides benefits from running in a district that Bush won only by seven points.
(My previous writeup on this race.)
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Jeff Seemann
If Mitakides was well-intentioned but destined to lose, and if Konop was a hopeless cause, Seemann was little more than a joke. He spent most of the early part of the year flailing as he sought attention -- any kind of attention -- to kickstart his moribund campaign.
His lucky break arose out of my own unfortunate "gaffe". As candidates like Mitakides ran from the "Kos controversy" -- my caustic anti-mercenary remarks in the wake of the fallujah killings -- Seemann saw an opportunity to raise his profile. His timely Blogad purchase garnered him real money -- in the tens of thousands, along with two appearances on Air America's Majority Report. And as I've mentioned before, early money begets more money.
Suddenly, Seemann was able to hire a staff, and that staff has garnered rave reviews from Ohio Dems. Throw in a district whose job picture is deteriorating by the second (thousands of jobs lost in the Timken and Hoover plant closings), and suddenly we have helped position a candidate to take advantage of a suddenly troubled incumbent.
(My previous writeup on the race.)
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To be sure, all three of these candidates are considered longshots. But we have gone from a situation where none of the Ohio Dem challengers were seen as winners, to one where three are considered possible contenders.
It's still early, and in this case, that's a good thing. If the elections were held tomorrow, none of the three would win. But all three are laying a solid foundation and can no longer be discounted as hopeless causes.