Polling is fun and interesting, but not always crystal clear, and not always (unless you're Nate Silver) predictive of what comes next.
There’s a reservoir of good will for Obama with the public that’s deeper than with the pundits and talking heads. Whereas the latter want instant answers now, and inherited problems fixed immediately, every poll suggests the public has more patience than that. That’s even true in the midst of firestorms (see AIG, and Congress’s "do nothing – do too much" approach), and it's why the public in every poll gives Obama months, not minutes, to fix things. For example, from the most recent NBC/WSJ poll (click for bigger graphic):
Now that's not written in stone (maybe 8-10 months is more realistic; see below), but two places you will get a feel for that is in measures of right track/wrong track (which are 38/56 or so but improving), and measures of consumer confidence and "economy improving/getting worse".
This one's right track/wrong track:
And this one's "state of the economy":
See also Gallup: Economic Optimism Reaches 20-Month High
Now, you can argue whether the numbers are inching up because people have confidence in Obama, or people have confidence in Obama because the numbers are inching up. Notice that the economic numbers only go up in March, after the election, and after the stimulus/recovery and budget bills were passed. The right/wrong, otoh, started to improve with the election. Regardless, so long as those numbers keep getting better, Obama’s polling numbers will run counter to the stories that "he’s tanking" or "he can’t communicate", and his own favorability and job approval numbers will stay in the high 50’s to low 60’s (veteran Republican pollster Bill McInturff figures as a rule of thumb, add 20 to 'right track' for the expected approval number.) From Gerald Seib:
Mr. McInturff notes that there is historically a direct link between the share of Americans who say they think the country is on the right track and a president's approval ratings. In recent weeks, the hope invested in Mr. Obama has driven up markedly the share of Americans who say the country is on the right track.
But the optimism is far more pronounced among Democrats than non-Democrats. And the flip side is that if the right-track number falls, Mr. Obama's popularity likely follows.
In response to poll questions, most Americans say they expect the recession to last for two years or so. Mr. McInturff thinks that, in reality, they will give the president less time, more like eight to 10 months, to show progress. Which reading is correct could be crucial.
That's another way of saying Republicans don't like Obama, and leaves out that crucial independents are more like Democrats. This is Obama's net favorability from the Daily Kos R2K poll:
What the polls do not say is "Obama has another week, and that's it! We're outta here!"
What does Obama need to do? He must be perceived as working on the issues,while being transparent and honest, but that’s tough in a DC culture used to neither, especially when he needs to explain the actions of Congress or Wall Street. That doesn’t make him immune from legitimate criticism, and it doesn’t spill over by extension to, say, Tim Geithner or Chris Dodd, but it certainly shields him from much of the silly stuff, such as rants by the grumpy old men who got us into this mess that he’s not upholding the traditions of the Imperial Presidency because he takes his jacket off and appears on Leno, and his wife *gasp* prefers sleeveless.
Winning over Republicans in the process is a bonus, and worth the effort, but not worth losing sleep over if they don't meet him half way (see Dems Map Strategy to Pass Health Reform Without Republicans.) There's a reason Obama gets credit for bipartisanship, and Republicans don't, and those efforts pay dividends with independents. That's a lesson the GOP seems determined not to learn. Now, there are some realists in the GOP who get the picture, but you don't see them much on cable TV. Behind the scenes, however, there's no monolithic GOP approach, except in the House. And even in the House, earmark bloviators know when to zip it.
"Washington needs to stop spending money that it doesn't have," Michigan Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra said in attacking the $410 billion omnibus-spending bill, which funds the government through September. But once it passed, he touted its benefits for his district, which stretches along Lake Michigan.
"Safe and navigable harbors are economic engines that drive the communities that surround them," Mr. Hoekstra declared, announcing $3 million for harbor improvements.
Oh, and if you want to add to what you know, check out Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin's mapping out how it plays in real life (click the map to get there):