PPP's third poll of the Democratic primary shows very little movement in the race since their first poll in January and their second poll last month.
Public Policy Polling. 2/28-3/1. Registered voters. MoE 3.9%. (February numbers, January numbers)
Democratic Primary
Brian Moran 22 (19,18)
Terry McAuliffe 18 (21,18)
Creigh Deeds 15 (14,11)
This month's polling results are a bit odd for one reason in particular: the numbers among black voters.
Last month, McAuliffe had a healthy lead among black voters, with 26% to 16% for Brian Moran. In January, the numbers were 20% for McAuliffe to 14% for Moran.
This month, Moran leads 15% to 14% among black voters, which is the reason he now leads overall (he's gained a few points among white voters, and now leads McAuliffe 24% to 21% in that demographic).
This is probably either due to a change in methodology, or to a statistical blip. There's no really good reason McAuliffe should have lost that much of his support among black voters in a month, especially since 1) those voters aren't going to either of the other two candidates, and 2) McAuliffe's numbers among white voters are little changed.
As they did last month, Moran and Deeds enjoy the best favorables (though the poll pegs Moran's unfavorables among Republicans at zero, and favorables at 46%. This is odd, though it probably doesn't make too much difference since Republicans are a small sample of respondents - it bumps Moran's favorables up a couple points, but it's nothing huge.
Moran is cruising at 34/15 favorables, with Deeds at 31/12. Meanwhile, McAuliffe is at 32/29 favorable/unfavorable (actually bleeding some support since the last poll). That's a good sign for Moran and Deeds supporters, though not surprising given the recent tone of the campaign.
Still, there's a lot of campaign to go, and all three camps have yet to ratchet up their paid media campaigns. So we'll have to wait and see.
On the web:
Creigh Deeds for Governor
Terry McAuliffe for Governor
Brian Moran for Governor