It seems like some people are about to jump off bridges because of this SBV thing. I'd have hated to see some you guys blogging the 1992 election.
The polls haven't moved much in Bush's favor, and any movement you might be seeing, I don't think its because of the SBVT.
The reason was more that Kerry virtually vanished from the national media spotlight in the weeks after the convention and Bush was able to frame the debate in terms favorable to him.
IMO, this isn't so much about the SBVT veracity, per se. Its more an attempt to reframe the meta-campaign in a way that gets him back in the spotlight in a more flattering light. Its a bit of a gamble, but at worst, Kerry loses a bit.
But most importantly, its an attempt to undermine BC's whole "object of derision" meme. You guys remember that? This is Kerry's effort to hit back at the Bush campaign, regain some of the momentum he lost, and throw the Bush campaign off stride. At worst, this SBV controversy throws the "derision" plan off track, which I think is a positive thing. Bush's only hope is to paint Kerry as unacceptable, as has been mentioned ad naseum. Hence the "object of derision" strategy, which ultimately would be - as BC knows - be a more effective way of making Kerry seem unacceptable.