Sergio Bendixen, a Miami-based pollster specializing in polling the bilingual Latino community, recently released a blockbuster poll of the Cuban American community.
The sample is solid:
The sample includes Cubans born in the United States (25%), Cubans that came to the USA before 1980 (34%) and Cubans that came to the USA in 1980 or after (41%); Cubans 18-49 (49%) and Cubans 50 years of age and older (51%); Cubans in Florida (82%), Cubans in New Jersey (12%) and Cubans in other states (6%). The sample is based on US Census data and is representative of the approximately 1.2 million Cuban and Cuban American adults residing in the United States.
And the results are eye-opening:
A substantial majority of Cuban and Cuban American adults in the United States - 64 percent - support the changes in Cuba policy announced last week by President Barack Obama that lift all restrictions for Cubans in the United States on travel and remittances to Cuba. Fifty percent of Cubans said that they "strongly support" the policy changes while only 20 percent said that they "strongly oppose" them.
Really, only the furthest right-wing Cuban Americans oppose the essentially tepid changes Obama announced. The kind of people who would be outraged that Obama referred to the nation of Cuba at the Summit of the Americas as "Cuba". (Like, really fucked-in-the-head crazies.)
What's more surprising:
Two-thirds of Cuban and Cuban American adults - 67 percent - support the lifting of travel restrictions for all Americans so that they can also travel to Cuba freely.
This is a huge boost to bipartisan and trans-ideological legislation in Congress right now to lift the travel embargo. And by trans-ideological, I don't mean fake bipartisan, where Democrats get 1-2 New England Republicans to sign on, or Republicans get the Nelsons, Landrieu, or the two Democratic senators from Wal-Mart to sign on. But a coalition that truly spans the ideological spectrum, putting people like Bernie Sanders and Mike Enzi on the same side.
Once the travel ban is lifted, that coalition will next target the economic embargo, and even on this, the most contentious of policy questions, opponents could not garner even a plurality.
The Cuban American community splits on the issue of the commercial embargo against Cuba. Forty-two percent believe that it should be continued while 43 percent believe that it should be terminated.
The crosstabs (PDF) on this question are particularly interesting:
What is your opinion about the U.S. embargo against Cuba?
18-49
Continue the embargo: 33
End the embargo: 54
50+
Continue the embargo: 51
End the embargo: 33
Arrived in the US in the 1970s and before
Continue the embargo: 55
End the embargo: 30
Arrived in the US in the 1980s and 1990s
Continue the embargo: 42
End the embargo: 43
Arrived in the US 2000 and after
Continue the embargo: 15
End the embargo: 65
Those who lived through the revolution are still so blinded by rage that they cling to an objectively failed strategy. But that older generation is fading away, and many more are simply realizing that there's little value in clinging to failure. Check it out:
What is your opinion about the U.S. embargo against Cuba?
2006 survey
Continue the embargo: 53
End the embargo: 36
2009 survey
Continue the embargo: 42
End the embargo: 43
One would be hard-pressed to argue that an 18-point net shift in opinion toward ending the embargo in just three years is a result of older Cuban Americans dying off. Rather, opinions have been changed, and the Cuban American community is now ready for a new way forward.
President Barack Obama receives surprisingly high ratings from Cuban Americans - a group that has very strong ties to the Republican Party. Two-thirds of all Cuban adults (67%) give him a favorable rating while only 20 percent give him an unfavorable rating.
Not only is that positive reinforcement as Obama and Congress shift gears on our failed Cuban policy, but it should strike fear deep in the hearts of both the Florida and national GOP. Once again, the world is changing, and they risk being left behind if they remain inflexibly committed to the status quo (which they will).