webranding's excellent diary, GOP Rebranding Effort: Epic Fail, inspired this diary. It started with comment I made in response to the original diary, but triggered a whole range of thoughts and associations that I think are worthy of their own diary.
My core premise is this - What the GOP needs to become in order to survive is fundamentally at odds with what the GOP is today. Any attempt to rebrand the GOP will result in cognitive dissonance, by the intended targets of the rebranding, the existing GOP base, or both.
This leads to other questions that we, as Democrats, should be asking ourselves... how can we exploit this weakness in GOP branding to strengthen our own brand? And what sort of fate do we think the Republican Party and conservatism should face?
(WARNING: This diary contains broad generalizations and stereotypes of race and class. If you disagree, please do more than nitpick)
The Republicans have become, for better or worse, the party of rural/suburban white people. And for better or worse, rural/suburban whites are on their way to becoming an ethnic minority in the US. As demographics inevitably shift, latinos and other immigrants make up a large population, and non-whites become wealthier and more politically and socially influential relative to whites, the political power base of ethnic whites will continue to shrink. At some point, the GOP will be unable to capture the presidency, the House or Senate, or state governments outside the South - unless they can broaden their appeal to latinos, blacks, and urban white voters.
The problem is, those same rural/suburban white conservatives fear and despise the very latino, black, and urban white voters they need in order for their party to survive and remain relevant! The hallmarks of modern Republican conservatism are intolerance and fear. This isn't simple, crass KKK racism (as too many liberals are quick to imply). They're generally fine with blacks and latinos - as long as they're culturally white and don't ever exhibit public signs of cultural difference. The racism they exhibit is just a flag for cultural prejudice. Being black or latino automatically puts you under suspicion of being different, and you will remain a suspect until you prove you're just as bland and "mainstream" as they are. And I believe a lot of the homophobia is cultural rather than religious as well - "I don't care what they do behind closed doors, as long as they don't do it in public or change the definition of marriage".
This is a problem for the GOP on multiple levels. First, any attempts to broaden the party's appeal to potentially conservative/moderate voters who aren't "culturally white" provokes a loud, negative reaction from their culturally white base. Latinos are okay - but not if they speak Spanish at home or were once illegal immigrants or are the children of illegal immigrants. Blacks are okay - but not if they speak with an accent or wear different clothes or listen to different music. Gays are okay - but only if they're in the closet. Etc.
The second problem is potentially stickier... Republican politicians and media figures have been whipping their base into a froth over racial/cultural issues for decades. Appealing to the ongoing targets of conservative cultural bigotry means giving up one of the best tools they have for getting out the vote - cultural bigotry. To win a broader base, Republican leaders must offend the base they have.
At this point in time, conservatives are dealing with a deep sense of failure. This is another source of massive cognitive dissonance. On every key issue facing America, Bush's application of conservative thought has not only failed, it's been a monumental, epic disaster. Foreign policy conservatives have lost a war. Wall Street conservatives have nearly bankrupted the country. Social conservatives have overseen the rise of gay marriage. Fiscal conservatives watched over the greatest spending and deficit growth in history. Everything they touched turned to shit. They can deny it or blame Obama or whatever all they want, but the facts are obvious to everyone. And offering up the same tired solutions - bomb foreigners, cut taxes, build walls, discriminate and torture - looks and feels utterly pathetic. They KNOW this, in their hearts. Hence the bitterness. Conservatives need to go back to the woodshed and come up with fresh, appealing, and arguably viable NEW approaches to virtually every problem facing America. And they don't want to do that, not when they're in love with their old ideas.
Conservatives are caught up in identity politics. Back in the 1980s, the Democrats were brought to their knees by identity politics - the idea that your role was defined first and foremost by your cultural labels, whether black or gay or female or whatever. This led to "political correctness" and internecine bickering that severely weakened the party and drove away "Reagan Democrats". Rush and other early talk-show conservatives played this up, taking on "special rights" and claiming that white heterosexual Christian males were the ultimate victims of oppression. Conservatives deeply internalized this message, this sense of victimhood, but it never quite jibed with the fact that white heterosexual Christian males were in fact running everything. Now, identity politics is what drives many (perhaps most) conservatives - but that identity isn't the multicultural tolerance and inclusion of old liberal identity politics. Now it's a single, shrinking ethnic group. Obama epitomizes everything they've feared - a black intellectual with a foreign-sounding name (if only he was gay...) So the state of politics today plays right into their belief in their own victimization! But despite the success of Obama and the ongoing demographic shifts, everyone outside of the self-styled victims still sees a nation run predominantly by white heterosexual Christian males, and the more they play up their victim status, the sillier they look to everyone else.
The core of their victim imagery makes no sense. The self-image of Republicans is the strong-willed, brave, independent, gun-toting, financially successful hero, like the majority of "real Americans". And this majority of macho is being oppressed and victimized by the minority of cowardly, lazy, weak, ghey welfare queen pacifist surrender monkeys. The irony is not lost on anyone, except them. See how there isn't even a racial/cultural component to this cognitive dissonance? They're really messed up!
The conservative media machine is stuck in a loop. For over twenty years, the conservative movement built a phenomenally powerful system for distributing their message. Talk radio and FOX News, plus an endless supply of party line talking heads for other channels and conservative think-tank writers for the newspapers and magazines, gave them great message control. But now that system is stuck repeating the same messages that have created massive cognitive dissonance! Let's call it the Noise Machine...
Any Republican leader who steps up to take on the Noise Machine will be attacked by the Noise Machine. We're already seeing this one. Speak out against Rush, and Rush will go after you - with all the influence he carries with his daily listeners. To break the cycle, the GOP almost needs to destroy its own messaging system, and start over from scratch. Democrats did it, starting with DailyKos and Dean for America back in 2003/2004, and growing into the modern netroots. But our system is possibly too diverse and tolerant for the top-down control that conservatism seems to need.
Today's Republican leaders represent the worst traits of the GOP. McCain led the charge here. As the party's standard-bearer in 2008, he should have seen the almost inevitable loss coming, and devoted his energies and focus to preparing the GOP for recovery. Instead, he played to its worst aspects by choosing Sarah Palin for VP, an incredibly divisive and offensive figure who quite frankly frightened everyone BUT the hardliners! Now she has the national stage, and stands a good chance of winning the 2012 nomination (to be followed by an utter massacre at the hands of President Obama). Once again, the worst enemy of the Republican Party is Republicans.
Environmentalism is becoming more and more important. The impact of global warming, pollution, the loss of species, and other environmental issues is becoming harder and harder to deny or ignore. But refusing to believe in global warming has become an article of faith and a litmus test for conservatives, and the belief that ANY environmental regulation is not worth the economic cost is an article of faith as well. So even when they grudgingly admit that humans are damaging the environment, they refuse to do anything about it! This has been driving a wedge between the GOP and religious conservatives, many of whom take their role as stewards of the Earth seriously. Again, the GOP leaders could start staking out pro-environment positions, but only by going against what they've been telling their base for the past forty years.
The saddest part of this all is that they could succeed. In many ways, the Spanish-speaking immigrants they hate represent conservative ideals. They believe in the American Dream, that through hard work and freedom and faith they can make a better life for themselves and their families. And many of them are actively religious and socially conservative. They could be fine Republicans - if they weren't splattered with bile from the Tancredo wing all the time.
So how should we, as Democrats, feel about this? It's easy to revel in schadenfreude while watching these morons choke to death on their own bile, but is it sensible? Is it healthy for the Democrats to go on with nearly useless opposition? That way may lie corruption and machine politics. Do we want to risk the death of an entire political party, and what would take its place? I don't believe conservatism is going to die. I think it's a natural human inclination, just as liberalism is. But a nation with powerless, disaffected conservative minority risks dangerous, violent radicalism.
I don't have an answer for those final questions, and honestly, I don't think there's much we as Democrats can do about it. The conservatives need to figure it out on their own, and the GOP needs to either grow or die. But at least I was able to put a good chunk of my thoughts in one place...
EDIT: Oops, I forgot...
- Democrats have successfully painted the GOP as the Party of Liars. This is where the cognitive dissonance gets painful for rebranding efforts! Any attempt to rebrand the GOP as inclusive, pro-environment, etc simply reinforces the Liars brand - especially if the rebranding attempt isn't sincere.
- This is why secession talk is becoming so popular! Conservatives see that they've lost control of the country to blacks and illegal immigrants and gays and Muslims and atheists and a massive coalition of the other undesirables. Deep down, they know they'll never get their former dominant glory again. So what's the solution? Create a new Homeland! Love it or leave it? Many of them would rather leave than share...