Here's my dilemma:
I'm thinking of running for state legislature in Florida in 2006. It's essentially a one-party state, with 2-to-1 R majorities in both houses. The incumbent is well-connected and relatively well-liked, but not dynamic or beloved, to be sure. He is term limited in 2008, but another R (with $150k in the bank) already plans to run in 2008 when the seat is open.
The incumbent only won by 300 votes when elected in 2000, and has never faced D opposition. We got killed in the redistricting, but it's generally a relatively poor suburban and rural area. The only reason the Florida Democratic Party did not contest the seat in 2002 is that they couldn't find a good candidate.
I just hate to see this seat in GOP hands for 16 uncontested years or more just because one guy won by 300 votes.
The one-party state is clearly not working in Florida, unless you favor total privitization and the dramatic de-funding of government. But as the 2004 cycle showed, you can't win by telling people the system is broken.
If challenged, the incumbent could easily raise over $300,000 in a matter of weeks or months. If funded by the party, I could probably raise around $100,000 (2/3 of which would come from the party, and 1/3 from other contributions).
My potential opponent's biggest liabilities include his ultra right wing and anti-working family voting record, which no one in the community has yet bothered to point out, his inability to make sure our schools are adequately funded, and his inability to inspire widespread confidence or lead vigorously. His greatest strengths include getting some funding for a few charter schools, and, of course, incumbency and its attendant bankroll.
Personally, I am in my mid-20s, I have a degree in biblical studies and a masters in theology, I'm a teacher, I work on government relations with the local teachers union, and I'm active in several mostly Democratic community groups. Fortunately my name ID is decent because our family has lived here a long time (though most of them are Republicans).
In 2004, the Florida Democratic Party targeted almost all its resources for the state House into 5 races, and lost all of them.
2006 should be a good D year nationally, but in FL there will be a heated reelection fight for Sen. Nelson and a battle to replace Jeb! at the top of the ticket.
What do you think?