With all respect for these three countries i must tell that. And we can add Belarus and Caucasian countries to the list. Is very unlikely see any of these countries joining the European Union.
Is a know reallity what the majority of citizens of a large majority of current European Union member countries are opposed to an integration of these countries in the European Union. They are very much reasons for make eskeptic the majority of people.
In first years of his war, Bush put pressure on european countries for accept Turkey in the European Union, but that is one of reasons what make near all europeans became against Bush, incuding some rigth parties in much european countries.
European governments don`t like tell openly, but they are opposed to let join the European Union of these countries. Not only that, they don't like see they joining the NATO. Tell that openly is bad diplomatically, but this is the reality, they don't like, they don't want.
European Union believe in good relations with all neighboring countries, but this is different of an integration in the European Union or in the NATO.
Now European Union is so free of very serious problems like the problems in the Kurdistan (Turkey), Chechnya (Russia), Abkhazia (Georgia), South Ossetia (Georgia), Nagorno Kharabakh (Armenia and Azerbaijan), or the fight with pro-russians in Ukraine, and they don't like have these problems inside.
Of course they have problems in the European Union, like the problem in the Basque Country, and more problems affect they closely, like the problems in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus or Kosovo, but they don't like much more problems inside.
If we see the list of members of European Union what not recognize Kosovo, you can see they are only five. Greece and Cyprus by Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Romania by Transdnistria, Spain by the Basque Country, and Slovakia by friendship with Serbia. And just this issues (Kosovo, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Transdnistria and Basque Country) are viewed like the more internal problems (when only the Basque Country is really inside the European Union) and are the issues where European Union is making biggest efforts.
European countries like Bosnia, Serbia or Kosovo surely will join European Union, but only after solve all their political problems. And Europeans can accept changes in country borders, but can not accept more internal wars or violent fights. A good solution for Kosovo can be a merge with a recognized country like Albania, and maybe too for the Srpska Republic of Bosnia with Serbia. If they like make that, the majority of europeans can accept all solutions what can solve definitively their problems.
Maybe we see too Moldova joining the European Union, like Cyprus or after join Romania, but European Union will not include the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus or Tansdnistria easily. Only after these problems get definitively solved.
These political problems what include very much times human right violations can be the first and more important reason, but is not the alone reason what make get far of join the European Union countries like Russia, Ukraine and Turkey.
Turkey and Russia are very big countries what can change all the balance of power in the Union. For the European Union Turkey is like a new state with 50 Million inhabitants for the United States. And Russia more. This is not like Puerto Rico or Washington DC. 50 Million of new americans with other culture, other religion, other views, and their specific problems and ways for solve.
Europeans don't like let this place to these countries. In the European Union they are minorities what can veto common resolutions and legislation. Turkey or Russia with very low number of little countries can have this rigth of veto with current european laws. Is so crazy think in an European Union blocked by the veto of Turkey or Russia with any small country, like Armenia or Azerbaijan.
When start the negocitions for the accession of one Country, the European Union check and value all the politics of the future new member, for see if are compatibles with the European Union laws. These negotiations became hard and can continue for long years when the positions are very far.
We can talk very much of all chapters of negotitations but like all europeans know, start a negotiation for the accession to the European Union is not synonymous with a succesful negotiation.
Like a person what born in Europe i will try make two realistic lists of countries no members of European Union by their chance of join the Union in middle or long term.
MAJORITARILY ACCEPTED IN EUROPE:
- Croatia: Formal application for membership 2003. Negotiations.
- Macedonia: Formal application for membership 2004.
- Montenegro: Formal application for membership 2008.
- Albania: Formal application for membership 2009.
- Iceland: Formal application for membership 2009.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: Formal application for membership 2009.
- Serbia: Formal application for membership 2009.
- Switzerland: Formal application for membership 1992. Frozen.
- Norway: Member of EEA. Failed negotiations in 1962, 1972 and 1994.
- Kosovo: Country with future SAA. Can join too merging with Albania.
- Moldova: Can join too merging with Romania.
FAR FROM EUROPEAN UNION:
- Turkey: Formal application for membership 1987. Negotiations.
- Belarus
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Georgia
- Armenia
- Azerbaijan
- Israel