All due respect to Wesley Clark and his campaign here at DKos. Clark has cleaned everyone's clock in the straw poll. At 26%, however, this is not a comfortable lead for Clark in predictive terms. Because in a real election, or primary season, that remaining 74% would be divided among other frontrunners with much more concentration.
Now, there is no way I am going to compete with the kind of turnout the frontpaged straw poll enjoyed. I look forward to your responses, but what I'm trying to do here is suggest that Markos might follow suit, and, upon announcing the closure of his poll, immediately follow it up with something like this:
In addition to the popularity of Clark, we are seeing the decideds fall on either side of that blade... And we see those two sides represented by Hillary Clinton and Russ Feingold. These do indeed represent a contrast to one another.
NY Sen. Hillary Clinton:
Shares with Clark an evocation of Clinton-Era hope and success.
Seeks to make inroads with republican voters by seeking some common ground with Republican politicians in the Senate.
WI Sen. Russ Feingold:
Shares with Clark a maverick, middle-American appeal.
Has made inroads with republican voters by voting against the majority of both parties in the Senate.
Let's assume the Clark bloc remains fairly committed.
Hillary Clinton is probably going to run, but she could be supplanted by another front-runner and see her support shift to a more Bill Clinton-esque Governor. Let's say Warner, Vilsack, Richardson. Evan Bayh. Harold Ford, Jr. Biden.
Russ Feingold may run, especially with our support. He is a candidate without a direct competitor. But if Hillary represents safe bets and the establishment, then Feingold would mean leftist dark horses, but on the other side of the coin those Democrats who have made inroads into republican demographics through contrast, not similarity. For example, Edwards as fair-trader and anti-poverty crusader. Obama. Conyers. Certain blasts from the past like Gary Hart are possible here, as are non-politicians like RFK, Jr., or any actor/newsman you'd care to name. But the elephant we are ignoring is, drum roll please... Eliot Spitzer.
It's necessary to posit a third category. While Clark's biggest supporters here include a lot who revile Kerry, just because their mind is already made up doesn't mean that Clark and Kerry aren't, still, natural competitors. To be fair, we need to acknowledge that in national polls Clark remains a distant dark horse. Therefore, while it will almost certainly hand him a decisive victory here, it is only fair to give him alternates too.
Kerry would probably compete for much of the same support with Clinton, too. But as a past candidate he belongs in a separate slot. As would Dean and Al Gore if they ran. All three share with Clinton the fact that many Democrats fear how much wingers revile them. All are seen as, rightly or not, anti-Bush candidates whereas Clinton is not positioning herself that way. All these guys are divisive. Clarkies have faith some republicans would switch for their man but the same Rovian forces suggest otherwise. So these guys are all listed as alternatives to Clark.
Note: In voting, be aware that you would be voting for any of the listed choices potentially. You shouldn't click Clark if you wouldn't click Kerry or Dean, or Gore, but many Clarkies will do just that, even if they feel their support would otherwise go elsewhere, so be my guest.
Note: My personal prediction is that Rupert Murdoch is anointing a Clinton/Clark ticket for 2008. And that in doing so he will hijack "leftwing" domestic politics as a vehicle for aggressive foreign policy and home front totalitarianism exactly as he has done in the UK through Blair (who he elected).
Which is not to say Hillary and Clark are Sith in disguise. They would in any case be more reluctant to wage full-scale wars than Bush has been (but who wouldn't be, now?). Both Clark and Hillary are getting comfy with Fox News. This can be taken as a sign of Murdoch, and Roger Ailes, becoming saner, if you wish.
I think there is a very good chance Clark will not enter the race and save himself to be Hillary's running mate. But that is not directly relevant to this poll, which is to refine the look at sentiment here which the straw poll affords. Not to be predictive of who will run and what they would do if elected.