PPP (PDF). 5/28-31. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (5/19-21 results)
Democratic primary
Deeds 27 (20)
McAuliffe 24 (29)
Moran22 (20)
PPP's take:
the momentum continues to be on Deeds' side. Over the last month he has gone from 14% to 20% to 27% in the polls while McAuliffe has dropped from 30% to 29% to 24% and Moran has pretty much stayed in place, polling twice at 20% and now up to 22%.
Two developments in the race appear to have fueled the movement over the last week and a half:
-Deeds' endorsement by the Washington Post has resulted in a significant increase in support in northern Virginia. He was polling at 11% there two weeks ago and that has more than doubled in the wake of the endorsement to 23%. With that region casting about 30% of the primary vote, more than half of his progress since the last poll has come there alone.
-McAuliffe has seen a decline in support in the Hampton Roads and greater Richmond areas since Brian Moran went on the airwaves with ads attacking him. He's dropped from 34 to 23% in Richmond and from 33 to 25% in Hampton Roads.
With McAuliffe and Moran going at each other, Deeds has been able to squeeze into the narrow lead. We've seen this play before -- the better-funded frontrunners nuke each other letting that forgotten guy slip through. In fact, we last saw it in the Republican presidential primaries. I'm skeptical of the power of newspaper endorsements to move votes, but it certainly couldn't have hurt Deeds. His movement in this poll is certainly statistically significant.
So what to make of the large number of the 26% undecideds? The obvious guess is that this race is still anyone's to win. In a split field, with all candidates within a few points of each other, that many undecideds is obviously a factor. But PPP isn't a pollster known for high undecideds, which certainly should be lower at this point of the campaign. So is this really a case of a volatile and undecided electorate?
My theory is a bit different -- that the high undecideds point to an unengaged apathetic electorate that simply doesn't give much of a crap. I doubt those undecideds show up. Heck, I doubt many of the people expressing preferences for one or the other candidates show up. While a lower-profile race, the 2006 Senate primary between Jim Webb and Harris Miller had a turnout of only 3.45%.
This thing will come down to whichever candidate has the best field operation and drags its supporters kicking and screaming to the polls. The Moran people will tell you it's them, and I know their field strategists are some of the best in the state. But if I had the wherewithal to talk to the McAuliffe or Deeds people, I'm sure they'd claim the same. So I won't venture any predictions. Flip a coin. A three-sided coin.
We'll have our own final poll of this race on Thursday. It'll be interesting if we catch the same trends that PPP has -- Moran treading water, McAuliffe falling, and Deeds rising.