The end of this month is the beginning date for the US plan of phased withdrawal from Iraq announced by President Obama. Questions are being raised as to whether it will really start to happen.
The New York Times has a story about conditions in the notorious city of Falluja. That was the city that was almost reduced to rubble by US forces following the execution of some US mercenaries in 2004. Since then there has been an effort to make it a model for the stabilization of conditions in Iraq.
After all, by last year the city, a former insurgent stronghold, was considered one of the safest places in the country. Local Sunni sheiks had driven out the insurgent group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and held successful elections, and American engineers were hard at work on a showcase reconstruction project: a $100 million wastewater treatment plant meant to be a model for civilian advances in Iraq.
Then a series of troubling attacks began cropping up this year. One in particular, at the end of May, seemed to drive home the possibility that things were changing for the worse. On a heavily patrolled military road between a Marine camp and the wastewater plant, a huge buried bomb tore through an armored American convoy, killing three prominent reconstruction officials and striking directly at hopes that the way was completely clear for peacetime projects.
It became apparent a long time ago that the notions of the Bush administration of turning Iraq into a garden of peaceful and prosperous American style democracy were not going to come about. They were able to send in enough troops to shove the lid on. Without those troops it seems pretty plausible that the lid will start to come off again. Nothing has happened to change the basic political dynamics of the country.
Obama's stated position has been that it was time for the US to leave no matter what. However, the plan he established was one of a fairly long staged withdrawal. What will happen if violence begins to escalate as US troops withdraw? If that happens many arguments will be raised for changing the plan. One of them will be concerns for the safety of the remaining US personnel. Will Obama have the political guts to stick to his position? The question is already being raised in the media. The situation in Iran raises many new concerns about the stability of the region. It looks like we may soon get a chance to find out the answer to that question.