This diary entry discusses money race issues with
Political Wire Report as my major data source.
MAJOR TRENDS:
- Two-thirds of all unitemized (i.e. small) contributions in the Democratic party primary race have gone to Dean (a little less than half of his total). A third of the rest went to Kerry whose days as a candidate appear to be numbered. Clark is the next runner up in small contributions, at about 10% of Dean's tote, followed by Gephardt, Lieberman and Edwards in that order. Only 5% of the contributions going to Kucinich, and only about 1% of the contributions going to Sharpton are unitemized.
- Most candidates receive significant contributions from their home state:
Braun 54% Illinois
Sharpton 24% New York
Kerry 21% Massachussetts
Gephardt 19% Missouri
Lieberman 19% Connecticut
Edwards 11% North Carolina
Clark 8% Arkansas
Dean 6% Vermont
Kucinich 5% Ohio
Generally speaking, however, candidates want this number to be low and not high. The more money you are receiving at home, the less successful you've been at developing a national fundraising network.
- Kucinich is raising 41% of his itemized contributions in California. This is followed by 7% in New York State, and 5% in Washington State. From a money perspective he is doing four times better than either Braun or Sharpton, despite similar poll standings. I suspect, given the source of the money, that this is basically Natural Law and/or Green Party money.
- Edwards has received the bulk of his non-home state money from California (16%), Texas (12%), New York (10%), Illinois (5%), and Florida (4%). Apparently, much of this money comes from fellow lawyers.
- Gephardt has received 19% of his non-home state money from California, and 11% from New York State.
- Shapton's money, according to the Washington Post, comes almost entirely in large contributions from black media executives and talent.
- In Florida, the money balance is as follows:
Lieberman $773,470
Kerry $708,154
Edwards $559,253
Gephardt $411,310
Dean $304,006
Clark $ 87,900
Kucinich $ 27,060
Braun $ 8,540
Sharpton $ 0
8. Edwards is #1 in itemized contributions among the Democrats in thirteen states, specifically: Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.
He is #2 in itemized contributions in eleven more states. He is second only to Dean in: Arizona, New Mexico, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. He is second only to Clark in Arkansas (the only state where he is in the lead). He is second only to Lieberman in Ohio. He is second only to Gephardt in Nebraska, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Missouri.
9. Dean is #1 in itemized contributions in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
This lead in Iowa (Dean has raised almost twice as much in itemized contributions there as Gephardt, who was also bested in Iowa fund raising by Kerry and Edwards), has to be something of an embarassment to Gephardt, who is making his big stand there. Indeed, Gephardt is less than $1,400 ahead of Kucinich in Iowa, despite his frequent Iowa appearances. This fundraising weekness belies Gephardt's strength in Iowa polls, since fundraising usually is a good measure of support in the activist base.
Given the fact that these numbers are all fairly modest, and that no one is actively organizing or holding major fundraisers in the Mountain states, this suggests that Dean has a real edge in the Mountain state primaries and caucuses.
- Kerry is #1 in California, Idaho, Illinois, Massachussetts, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island.
- In addition to his home state, Gephardt leads the fund raising race only in Kansas, Nebraska, Nevada, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
- Lieberman leads in fundraising in his home state and Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, and South Dakota.