A lot to get to this Thursday, so let’s get right after it:
NATIONAL: Two New Polls Show Obama in Strong Position; GOP Weak
A pair of national surveys continue an ongoing narrative: President Obama remaining in enviable position while the GOP lags badly behind their Democratic counterparts. In the new poll from Quinnipiac, Obama enjoys a job approval of 59%, and more importantly, voter approval of the Sotomayor nomination far outpaces disapproval of the pick (55/25). Quinnipiac also polls the generic congressional ballot, and finds the Democrats leading by ten points (42-32), a similar margin to our own Daily Kos State of the Nation weekly tracking poll last week. Meanwhile, GQR polls as well, and they find Obama at 58%. They also find a key difference in the favorability numbers of the Democrats (47/37) and the GOP (30/46). They have the generic ballot test at Democrats +13 (52-39).
NATIONAL: Two Intriguing Looks At Campaign 2010
Stuart Rothenberg looks at the current ideological rift in the GOP, how it differs from past circular firing squads among Democrats, and its possible implications for 2010. Meanwhile, over at 538, Tom Schaller picks his four bellwether districts for 2010. Interestingly, he picks four Midwestern Democratic freshmen: Gary Peters (MI-09), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), and Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15).
AL-GOV: Artur Davis Gets The NYT Treatment
Perhaps to be expected because of his closeness to Obama and the historic nature of the candidacy, but Artur Davis’ gubernatorial candidacy got a rather high-profile write-up in the New York Times. The article by the Times, though, makes one rather interesting omission. It fails to point out that Davis does, in fact, have a pretty serious primary opponent in state agriculture commissioner Ron Sparks.
FL-SEN: Rubio Gets Fairly Critical Niche Endorsement
If there was a flaw in the Rothenberg piece linked above, it was that he implied that the ideological rift in the GOP could well resolve itself well before the 2010 elections. Well, Florida has a late primary (9/10), and the ideological rift there still seems to be alive and well. Dennis Baxley, the outgoing leader of the state’s chapter of the Christian Coalition, elected to endorse right-wing insurgent Marco Rubio over his opponent, Florida Governor Charlie Crist.
FL-16: Potential Rooney Opponent Elects to Run Statewide
As reported by SSP, it appears that state senator Dave Aronberg has elected to run for attorney general. He had been talked up as a possible first-tier challenger for freshman Republican Tom Rooney. There is some Democratic bench in the district, however, so it is still possible that the DCCC will land a serious challenger for Rooney, who easily defeated damaged incumbent Tim Mahoney in 2008 by a wide margin.
MI-GOV: GOP Gets Another Name in the Gubernatorial Race
An already crowded GOP field for next year’s governor’s race grew more crowded, as Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard jumped into the fray. If the name sounds familiar, it should—Bouchard was the GOP’s choice to square off with Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow in 2006, a race which he lost rather handily (57-41). Bouchard joins Attorney General Mike Cox, Congressman Peter Hoekstra, and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the GOP field. Lt. Governor John Cherry is considered the favorite on the Democratic side.
NV-SEN: Harry Reid Gets Intriguing GOP Endorsement
Perhaps trying to play up his bipartisan credentials in advance of 2010, Majority Leader Harry Reid released a list of dozens of prominent Nevada Republicans who were endorsing him for re-election. Included was Nevada GOP kingmaker Sig Rogich, three prominent Nevada mayors (including Reno Mayor Bob Cashell), and...the first lady of the state: Dawn Gibbons. Of course, she won’t be first lady for much longer, she has filed for divorce from her husband, embattled GOP governor Jim Gibbons.
NH-SEN: Blast From The Past Looking At Senate Bid
Bringing back memories of that classic Clinton/Dole matchup, apparently the NRSC took a meeting with Ovide Lamontagne. Who, you might ask? Lamontagne was the one-time chairman of the state Board of Education who lost a race for Governor to Jeanne Shaheen (then a little-known state senator) by double digits (57-40). In 1996. Apparently, he thinks fourteen years is enough time elapsed to resurrect his political career. Charitably, the Hill notes that Lamontagne does not rate "at the top of the NRSC's list of potential candidates." Of course, they also don’t have a candidate committed to the race yet, either.
NJ-GOV: Early Rasmussen Poll Gives Christie Double-Digit Lead
A couple of caveats are necessary, but Rasmussen breaks out the first poll of the "real" general election cycle in New Jersey. They have Republican Chris Christie up on Democratic Governor Jon Corzine by thirteen points (51-38). Caveat #1: Hard to know exactly why, but Republicans almost always poll better than they actually perform in the Garden State. Caveat #2: Christie’s numbers will be inflated, because he got all the media attention there this week, and because people love a winner. Our DailyKos/Research 2000 poll last week, you will recall, showed Christie as undefined by around half of the voters. I suspect that Jon Corzine will have some resources with which to define him.
NY-SEN: So, Is Carolyn Maloney In The Senate Race Yet??
SSP has a great analysis of the allegedly imminent announcement that Manhattan Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney is getting into the Democratic Primary for the US Senate against incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand. Included, some wonderful speculation about SSP (and DailyKos) writer DavidNYC’s pending ascendancy to the U.S. Congress, as the newly minted representative from Maloney’s 14th Congressional District. Meanwhile, Gillibrand has dodged one potential rival for the nomination: Long Island Rep. Carolyn McCarthy has elected NOT to challenge Gillibrand in the primary.
VT-GOV: A Crowded Democratic Field For Governor?
Yet another Democrat has thrown their hat into the ring for next year’s race for Governor in Vermont. State Senator Susan Bartlett follows former Lt. Governor Doug Racine and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz into the race. The article also notes that Douglas has not yet confirmed that he is running for another term next year. Perhaps that explains the sudden flood of Democratic candidates into the field.