Michigan Governorship 2010 Redux
Michigan is still kicking, still struggling, and, oh yeah, it has a Governor’s race next year. There is a lot to discuss here and many things, both political and otherwise, which have changed and will effect the overall landscape of the election which will have a pivotal role in determining Michigan’s future as it continues to navigate the crossroads that it has.
The Background
Let’s cover some of the more obvious points: Michigan has had an atrocious economy for damn near a decade, leads the country in unemployment (with something like 12-15%), is set to lose the International Auto Show (unless heroic measures are taken), and both the state and its largest city are essentially broke. 4 of the larger employers in the state are currently in Bankruptcy (Chrysler, General Motors, Hayez Lemmerz, and Visteon). Oh yeah, and Democratic incumbent Governor Jennifer Granholm has a 60% disapproval rating.
The Democratic Candidates
Lt. Governor/Ex-State Senator John Cherry
State Representative/Ex-State Senator/Ex-Washtenaw County Commissioner Alma Wheeler Smith
Michigan State Trustee/Motor City Bowl CEO/Ex-Michigan State Football Coach George Perles
Dropped out: Macomb County Sheriff Mark Hackell, possibly ex-Flint Mayor Don Williamson
Possible: ex-State Representative John Freeman, Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano, State Senator Gretchen Whitmer, State House Speaker Andy Dillon
John Cherry is basically locking up most of the establishment support and has a decent ground game based out of his support from labor unions (which is still a big deal in Michigan, particularly in primaries). Alma Wheeler Smith is a State Representative from the Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti area (and prior to that she was a State Senator in Liz Brater’s seat) who is making the same type of doomed run she did in 2002. Perles is a joke who was in horrible physical condition the last time I saw him (in late 2007). Hackell dropped out because he felt he could not beat Cherry in the money and organization game. John Cherry is going to have to dealt with the fact that he was LG under Jennifer Granholm who is getting a lot of the blame for Michigan’s state and not undeservedly in my opinion (she has been flat out incompetent and many of those that lean left agree with me). Also, and undeservedly, Cherry is also believed to have a negative in that he’s viewed as "The UAW’s man" and many are unfortunately buying into the "The UAW killed GM" mythos. If unemployment remains high in Michigan Cherry is going to be in significant trouble going into the general election, particularly if Chrysler or GM hits a significant snag going forward. But Cherry will benefit if Obama’s policies bear fruit in Michigan by mid-2010 and he also is benefiting from having a relatively mild primary (Wheeler Smith is the only significant candidate currently announced and she doesn’t have the resourced to make any trouble for Cherry). If Robert Ficano decides to run Cherry could have a race on his hand for the nomination but until then Cherry has smooth sailing. And I’m still disappointed that Dennis Archer decided not to run for Governor.
The Republican Candidates
Attorney General Mike Cox
Secretary of State Teri Lynn Land
Congressman Peter Hoekstra
Oakland County Sheriff/Ex-State Senator Majority Leader Mike Bouchard
State Senator Tom George
Businessman & Chairman of Ann Arbor SPARK Rick Snyder
Dropped Out: Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson
Possible: Dominos Pizza CEO/ex-University of Michigan Regent David Brandon, a Construction Company Chairman who made news with some blasts at the Mackinac Public Policy Conference but who’s name I can’t recall.
First things first: With everything in Michigan Republican Politics you have to keep in mind what region of the state of the candidates are coming from: Land, Hoekstra, and George are from Western Michigan/Grand Rapids which is where the Republican base is in Michigan, Bouchard is from Oakland County which is the second largest county in Michigan and used to be heavily Republican until about 2004, Cox is from the Detroit Suburbs, and Snyder is from liberal Ann Arbor. Currently the institutional support from the party is primarily going to either Cox or Snyder (Snyder is getting backing from ex-GOP Committeeman Chuck Yob as well as the Milliken family) with Land getting help from no one in the establishment (and with her supposedly disappointing at the Mackinac Public Policy Conference, Teri Lynn Land’s candidacy is kind of flagging at this point) with Bouchard probably getting the support of L. Brooks Patterson.
While this appears to be a group of heavy hitters it is worth noting that most of these candidates have significant liabilities: Cox admitted to marital infidelity and his picking a fight with Blue Cross & Blue Shield struck a lot of people as grand standing (at least in regard to the Accident Fund issue, the current rate hike issue may be another story). Land is really coming off as a lightweight and had a rather inauspicious debute in the Mackinac debate (supposedly), George doesn’t stand a hope in hell of winning the primary, Hoekstra is a pro-Bush Republican Congressman and is the type of "Standard Grand Rapids Republican" who generally does horribly statewide, Bouchard got blown out in 2006 by Debbie Stabenow in the US Senate race, and Snyder is a terrible speaker (and there are allegations that he outsourced US jobs when he was the COO of Gateway Computers, though Snyder’s people completely deny that). Of the potential candidates Brandon is running a business that is a Michigan Icon (though out of the 4 Pizza places that have extended beyond the state Dominos probably ranks last overall in terms of quality Pizza) and is doing relatively well. Cox is probably the favorite to win the primary and comes into the general with a lot going for him (and he beat current Congressman Gary Peters in a surprising win in 2002, the same year Jennifer Granholm won statewide). Snyder has the money to run, and the Ann Arbor SPARK under his stewardship is considered an overall positive in regard to Michigan’s economic development efforts, however many are concerned that he comes off too much like 2006 nominee Dick Devos (however, I think Snyder is the only current Republican running who hasn’t pledged fealty towards Right to Life so there’s that). In order of chance: Cox, Snyder, Hoekstra, Land, George.
If Cox is the nominee then John Cherry has a small chance as Mike Cox has one of the most unlikeable public personas of a Michigan Official that I could name, and considering he said the exact same lines in back-to-back public appearances on the Paul W. Smith radio show and it appears that he isn’t capable of moving outside of the basic talking points (though Cox is a streetfighter, and is one of the most vicious campaigners, when he’s on, that I have ever seen). If Rick Snyder is the nominee and (here’s a big and) he’s able to effectively make the case that he’ll be able to provide jobs then there might not be a way for Cherry to win as the state is even more desperate for jobs than when Devos ran in 2006 (and if Devos had run a better campaign and not gotten sidetracked into the "Amway outsourced jobs" issues he could have won, despite the size of Granholm’s reelection win) unless Cherry can make the 2006 strategy that Granholm used work again.
Cherry’s chances of holding the seat for the Democrats also depend on the current budget negotiations that are under way in Lansing. A shut-down of the Michigan state Government, particularly if it gets blamed on Granholm, may just kill him. But I’m really, really scarred that my state is going to end up with Governor Mike Cox, as he’s awful, on every conceivable level and would lead Michigan to the point where California would appear better.