The Lebanese elections will occur on Sunday June 7. Despite the rather convoluted and twisted nature of Lebanese democracy, the endemic corruption and the continual pushes for changes in nature of the electoral system, the results of this election are very much up in the air.
Latest election polls show that a few seats and districts either way could swing the results from the government to the opposition. (For considerations of space, I'm leaving out a lot of detail but I'd like you to finish reading this diary before the elections tomorrow!) Follow me below the fold as I go through the players and give my views on likely outcomes.
Brief History of Democracy in Lebanon
While Lebanon was still under French mandate in the 1930s, the French carried out a census to determine population, including the population of each of Lebanon's confessions or religions. The census was more than likely 'rigged', showing that the Maronite Catholics, allied with the French since the Crusades, were the largest sect. They were therefore given the position of President. The Sunni Muslims, were given Prime Minister and the Shia were given Speaker of the House. The Cabinet positions and seats in the 128-seat Chamber of Deputies were allocated among all the confessions. A two-thirds majority is necessary for constitutional matters.
During the Civil War (1975-1990) elections were not held. In 1990, the remaining living parliamentarians got together at Ta'if in Saudi Arabia and came to an agreement that ended the Civil War and included 31 constitutional amendments that led to a new power-sharing arrangement. The sectarian electoral formula was unchanged but it would operate in a more equitable way with greater Muslim input and far less Christian domination. Elections for the Chamber of Deputies are held every 4 years.
Elections were held and the democratic process continued with the usual lurching-from-crisis-to-crisis-mode common in Lebanon and the continued occupation of Syria and Israel of parts of the country. The political scene was revitalised with the withdrawal of Israel in 2000 and the withdrawal of Syria a few years later.
Corruption is a problem in Lebanese elections. I saw the press conference by the Interior Minister Ziad Baroud yesterday (as well as his charming appearance on Boukra Elna) where he proudly showed off the new ID cards with hologram technology that must be shown prior to voting and the indelible ink that will be used to prevent 'voting early and often'. However, vote-buying is common and now it has moved internationally, with major players paying for airfares to Lebanon by expatriates in return for votes.
The Major Players
The government is currently formed by the March 14 alliance, which includes the Future Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), the Lebanese Forces, the Phalangists and the Tripoli Bloc. This movement is characterised as 'anti-Syrian' which in not precisely accurate given the strong links with Syria of the Hariri family and the recent movement towards Syria by Walid Jumblatt of the PSP. (Please note that the opposition has cabinet posts as well but does not form the majority).
The Future Movement is led by Sa'ad Hariri, the son of the assasinated former Prime Minister Rafiq. Most of their support comes from Sunni Muslims and the current Prime Minister Fouad Siniora is a Future member. They have their own tv station (Future TV) as well as radio and newspapers. They hold 36 seats in the Chamber, the largest grouping. They tend to be very pro-business and have strong ties to Saudi Arabia, where Rafiq Hariri made his fortune. Hariri's company Solidere was heavily involved in the reconstruction of Beirut following the war.
The PSP led by Walid Jumblatt, the Druze za'im or leader. They hold 16 seats. Forgive my cynicism about Walid Jumblatt but he is a human weathervane politically. He's been pro and anti-Syrian, pro and anti-Hizbullah, pro and anti-several different Christian grouping. He's currently allied with the government but he has lately taken to criticizing his own allies so you'll most likely find him allied to whomever is closer to power. The PSP also acts as a quasi-governmental organisation providing social services to populations in its area.
The third major grouping on the government side is the Christian Maronites. The Lebanese Forces, led by Samir Geagea and the Phalangists (or Kataib) led by Amin Gemayel each hold 6 seats. They tend to be quite right-wing parties with active militias in the Civil War. The Phalangists were involved in the Sabra-Chatila massacres (seen as retribution for the assasination of Amin's brother President Bachir Gemyal) and Samir Geagea served time in jail for the assassinations of several Lebanese political figures.
The opposition is currently formed by the March 8 alliance, composed of Hizbullah, Amal, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Skaff and Murr Blocs.
Hizbullah and Amal draw their support from the Shia population and hold 14 seats each. The Shiites are most likely the largest sect in Lebanon and have always been historically under-represented. Amal is led by Nabih Berri, the long-time speaker of the Chamber of Deputies. Amal has historically been pro-Syrian and had a large militia during the Civil War, where they fought Palestinian and Druze militia. They even engaged in conflict with Hizbullah but were not successful and after Ta'if the Amal troops joined the Lebanese Army.
Hizbullah is headed by Hasan Nasrallah. With the birth of Hizbullah in the mid to late-1980s, Hizbullah has served as a resistance movement and quasi-governmental organistion, providing social services to populations in the south and west of Lebanon. They provided effective resistance in the south against the Israeli Army, forcing their withdrawal in 2000. Hizbullah is pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian and much of its funding is provided by Iran and wealthy expatriot Shia, particularly in West Africa. There is controversy about Hizbullah's role in Lebanon - it maintains an active milita when many other groups have abandoned theirs and it therefore operates a military and foreign policy outside the auspices of the national government. It used military force to force the government to give Hizbullah veto power in the Cabinet, which is unconstitutional. Israeli occupation of Sheba'a Farms is the ostensible reason given for continued resistance but support among other sects for Hizbullah has been falling since the high point reached during the Israeli invasion of 2006. Nasrallah made a politically smart move by offering the Prime Minsiter-ship to Sa'ad Hariri if March 8 won the elections. It's doubtful Hariri will take up the offer but it shows that he is working to ensure that a March 8 government will not be sanctioned by the US or EU. Hizbullah and Amal allies in the Change and Resistance Bloc hold a further 7 seats.
The Free Patriotic Movement is led by Michel Aoun and currently holds 14 seats (It has allies in the Skaff and Murr blocs that hold a further 7). It has its own television station (Orange TV - yes, another great orange satan) and website and some of the most hip and savvy political advertising including the 'Sois Belle et Vote' ad, (although my favorite is the taghyeer/ta3teer ad). It is officially secular but most of its support comes from Christians of all sects. Michel Aoun is a former Army Commander and Prime Minister (yes, I know he's a Christian but this was in the late 1980s when things were really screwed up and Lebanese democracy has always been flexible). He's considered pro-Syrian which is funny given how he fought battles both militarily and politically in the past to remove Syria from Lebanon. Aoun is finding increasing support among Muslims as well as Christians who find his 'Christians and Muslims must live together as Lebanese' message attractive. However, there has been some falling away of Christian support with a swing towards the Lebanese Forces as Christians are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the role Hizbullah is playing on the national stage.
Outcome of the Elections?
It's anyone's guess. All polling ended seven days before the election and the latest polls showed an opposition victory but the numbers were very tight. My personal view is that the districts to look out for are those in Christian areas. The Sunni and Shia votes are pretty much locked in with the March 14 and March 8 groups respectively so the Christian vote is crucial. The March 8 bloc needs to win another 7 seats to form government and since Amal and Hizbullah hit the 28 seat limit in their allocated seats, Michel Aoun and his allies will need to come up with the rest. Christian areas like Metn, Zghorta, Koura and Kesrwan are vital, as are the votes and alliances made by smaller Christian sects such as the Armenians (Orthodox and Catholic) and the Greek or Antiochian Orthodox, which is seeing support drift to Samir Geagea. I don't believe we'll get a hung parliament but I do believe that some form of national unity government may be necessary.
But the elections will do nothing to address the underlying inequalities and contradictions of the Lebanese electoral process and the confessional system. All parties pay lip-service to secularism but few moves are made towards it. There is an active movement in Lebanon for proportional representation and a senate which protects the confessions but the current structure rewards protection of sectarian interests and it's difficult to see how that movement will prosper.
I'll be watching LBC, Future TV, al-Jazeera and Orange TV for the latest reports. Online, I know that the Angry Arab will be providing updates from the Arabic news services. You can also go to Qifa Nabki/ and Lebanese Elections 2009 for more information. There will be election monitors from the Carter Center and the European Union and Madeleine Albright will also be there.
I hope you find this diary useful. It really was a quick and dirty effort with a lot of it done from memory and the usual unnamed sources who don't wish to be named. However, if there are any errors, I'll be happy to correct.