With an eyes towards the opening of polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia in around 12 hours, let’s look at Monday on the campaign trail.
NATIONAL: A Cairo Bump for Obama? Depends on The Pollster
Two interesting, and somewhat conflicting, sets of data in the wake of Obama’s address in Egypt late last week. Gallup releases data today to suggest that President Obama’s numbers were unmoved, and even dipped a tad, in the wake of last week’s trip. A week ago, they had him at 63/30. Today, that number stands at 62/32. However, Rasmussen (historically the toughest pollster on President Obama) has seen a marked improvement since late last week. Using their metric (which is comparing very favorable respondents with those having a very unfavorable opinion), Obama has picked up seven points. On Friday, our weekly Daily Kos State of the Nation tracking poll will have its first data since the President’s speech last week in Cairo.
CA-GOV: Early Primary Poll Shows Undecided Lapping The Field
Perhaps it is not surprising, given how far removed we are from the California gubernatorial primary next year, but a new poll just released shows that no single candidate commands even a quarter of their party’s electoral support. On the Democratic side, former Governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown leads with 24%, with San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (16%) and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (15%) trailing. On the GOP side, the numbers are even more muddled, with former Congressman and 2000 Senate candidate Tom Campbell leading with just 13% of the vote, followed closely by former CEO Meg Whitman at 10%, and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner at 8%.
IL-SEN: Potential Democratic Field Thins Slightly
...And another one bites the dust. After months of speculation, Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky announced that she would NOT be seeking the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate next year. That leaves Alexi Giannoulias, Chris Kennedy, and, of course, the possibility of Senator Roland Burris as the Democratic field for the Senate nomination.
NC-SEN: Potential Democratic Field Thins Here, As Well
It is hard to classify this as a surprise, since he has repeatedly denied any interest, but Heath Shuler today clarified once again that he will not be a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat in 2010 currently occupied by Republican Richard Burr. Democrats are still hunting for a top-tier candidate, although there are rumors that Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre might be interested in the race, after previously demurring from a challenge.
NH-02: Former Dem Candidate For Governor Jumps Into Open Seat Race
Mark Fernald, a former State Senator who is perhaps best known for his unsuccessful bid for Governor in 2002 against Republican Craig Benson, threw his hat into the ring for the seat being vacated by Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes (who is running for the Senate). There are still a number of candidates from both parties eyeing the race.
NY-GOV: Rangel Playing Hardball With Potential Paterson Primary Challengers
Taegan Goddard picks up an extraordinary interview that Charlie Rangel did with NY1. In it, Rangel seems to be implying that the mere act of offering up a primary challenge to Paterson was going to devastate the Democratic Party in New York, because it would rip open racial divisions.
Consider this quote from Rangel:
"I think that there might be an inclination for racial polarization in a primary in the state of New York. And since we have most African-Americans registered as Democrats, and since you would be making an appeal for Democrats, it would be devastating in my opinion."
One question left unanswered—is he referencing only Cuomo (who has already had a somewhat bitter primary experience with an African-American political leader when he lost to Carl McCall in 2002), or is he talking about ANY potential primary challenges to Governor Paterson?
PA-SEN: Prominent Democrat Endorses Idea of Senate Primary Challenge
On a weekend where Joe Sestak said only an act of God would keep him out of the U.S. Senate race (which either means he has cleared it with his wife, or he is offering up one hell of an extended metaphor by saying his wife IS a God in his eyes), we also learn that one of the most prominent spokesman in the Democratic Party is endorsing such a challenge. Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank sees a primary as an acceptable action, and he does not mince words as to why:
"There's an erratic behavior pattern there (with Specter) that's very troubling. I think at this point it's entirely reasonable for some Democrats to think about challenging him."
Frank was also very critical about some of Specter’s early missteps after becoming a Democrat, in particular his inconsistent reactions to the MN-Senate case, which put him in the middle between his new party and an old colleague/friend in Norm Coleman. Frank thought Specter really dropped the ball there:
"When he said, Oh, but I'm confident the courts in Minnesota will do justice to Norm Coleman, and then said, Oh, I forgot which side I'm on!--forget about forgetting which side he's on. What that says is, his view of what the law should be depends on what party he's in. This notion that your view of what's an appropriate legal decision depends on your party is shocking for a guy who's supposed to be this great lawyer."
VA-GOV: Election Eve Brings Some News, Loads of Good Analysis
With a suddenly interesting and possibly close primary on the way tomorrow, the election wrap-up would not be complete without some reference to the pending Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia. According to Taegan Goddard, Terry McAuliffe is now launching on Creigh Deeds in the 11th hour, a clear a sign as any that his campaign now sees Deeds as the frontrunner. Meanwhile, Hotline On Call continues to compile hints about turnout—with a small handful of exceptions, most of the reports are bleak. Finally, Mark Blumenthal over at Pollster has a series of great articles looking at tomorrow’s contest.