My 5% Conspiracy Theory (meaning I believe there is a less than 5% chance of it being correct).
Consider that:
- A good part of the CIA is intensely resentful of the fact that the Administration first ignored its work, then rewrote it, then had the gall to turn around and blame it when everything they thought they knew about WMD's turned out to be wrong. Also, the investigation of the Valeries Plame case is dead in the water.
- Howard Dean's brother Charlie was an American intelligence agent of some sort.
- After long decades of waiting, Charlie's remains were returned to the family about a month after it became clear that Dean would be the Democratic nominee. (And as much as I dislike and distrust Drudge, and favor Dean, it is really hard not to see special treatment in this - and Rove, you can be sure, was not the one pulling strings.)
- It is generally known that Saudi Arabia played a central role in the financing of al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations, and that some elements of the Saudi monarchy allowed money to get into the hands of the 9/11 highjackers (see cover article, Atlantic May 2003); it is also pretty well known that the Bushies have close ties the Saudi royal family. Everything that the public knows generally, the CIA is likely know in much more detail.
- The White House has been almost insanely uncooperative when it comes to letting members of the commission investigating 9/11 see documents relating to it - despite the fact that all members of the commission have the highest levels of clearance.
- On the Diane Rehm show, Dean suggested that the Administration's unwillingness to play ball with the Kean commission is a bad thing because it gives conspiracy theories play - such as the theory that the Saudis gave the White House advance warning of 9/11.
- Dean's foreign policy team is a collection of some very well-connected individuals; the `grown-ups' trust him.
- Dean's answer to the question when it is ok to lie to the American public is the kind of answer someone who knows intelligence work must subscribe to (i.e. only when it is the only way to save the life of someone who is in imminent danger.)
- Dean is clever as a fox.
A speculation:
Some Deep Throat in the CIA has either directly or indirectly advised Dean to float these `outrageous' suggestions - in a manner which of course might make it seem like Dean is just talking out of his ass. This Deep Throat knows something about Administration foreknowledge of 9/11 (say, an urgent phone call from the Saudi government, foolishly ignored) which would be very damaging if it ever came to light. The point is either to give the Administration a warning shot across the bow, or, worse, to suggest that it is just a matter of time before one of the most damaging leaks in US history comes out.
Now: if I know that this theory is 95+% likely to be wrong, yet it gives me a warm glow inside, is that such a bad thing?
Ok, tinfoil hat off, back to work now.