Ayatollah Rafsanjani has finished speaking at Friday prayers. Mir Hussein Mousavi's presence at the ceremony has been confirmed, as he announced his intention to attend days ago. Numerous articles this week appeared about Mousavi efforts to build a coalition political party to challenge hard-line rule. It appears that the drive for a recognized political opposition could be the compromise that puts the election controversy behind and sets the rules for debate going forward.
Since the election Mousavi and his close political allies, including Ayatollah Rafsanjani have refused to recognize the election. They have been joined by many other moderate clerics and most importantly Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. Reform candidate Karroubi, and previous Reform President Khatami also joined this coalition. Another powerful symbol of this coalition is Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard; she embodies a symbol to all reform minded women in Iran. On the Conservative side, Mohsen Rezai (Pragmatic Conservative Candidate), while dropping his complaints about the election still voices concern over heavy-handed government action. At times this sentiment has been echoed by his party affiliate and Speaker of the Majlis, Ali Larjani. Larjani too has been walking a fine line between showing support for the regime, while at the same time expressing regrets about tactics of the government.
The apparatus of the State, specifically the Revolutionary Guard, various police groups and the Basiji have enforced Supreme Leader Khamenei's call to end street protests and to force acceptance of his declared Ahmadinejad victory. Many abuses have occurred and it is unclear exactly how many have died or how many remain in jail. It remains highly unlikely that a new election will occur, and it remains even less likely that some new "Revolution" is around the corner. So, the question arises: What is Mousavi trying to accomplish? The establishment of a recognized Reform coalition seems to be the answer. The continued threat of unrest, in addition to the significant people involved in his group so far provide his leverage. If he can negotiate the recognition of his Reform coalition in exchange for acceptance of the election, that is probably the best outcome that could arise at this point. Such a coalition could then quietly work on securing the release of protesters and consolidate opposition elements into a sort of "loyal" opposition. Going forward this opposition could keep pressure on the state and put the brakes on what would likely be an inevitable slide toward a much more repressive regime.
In this context there are a few other items that I wish to highlight. I have been pointing these things out in comments over the last week or so, but I think they are important to keep in mind:
- We are not close to another Revolution. In 1978 the Shah's government killed roughly 10-12 thousand Iranians in protests around the country. The protests kept getting bigger, and that is why he left the country in January of 1979. The recent protests and violence have been graphic, horrific and inspiring, but there is far from a nationally unified coalition against the government similar to 1979.
- The Ahmadinejad/Khamenei government will accuse opposition of being sponsored by foreigners. This is the standard charge that carries great weight given the last 200 or so years of Iranian history. The US needs to stay out of this fight for now. If, however, a compromise is reached; we should, move quickly to embrace that government. It will be very hard for the Ahmadinejad/Khamenei coalition to play against the Great Satan if the US is not cooperating by playing the role of Satan.
- It remains unclear if Mousavi or Ahmadinejad won the election. We probably never will really know. However, what this indicates is a sharply and nearly evenly divided society, and with the apparatus of the state behind him, Ahmadinejad holds the upper hand. Civil War will not help the Reformist cause. In addition, the West needs to think long and hard about the policies that will help Ahmadinejad internally, and which policies won't. Here's a hint: Confrontation with the West Helps Ahmadinejad.
- Many people on all sides see this election as pivotal. Khamenei's interference in the election was unprecedented in a period of unprecedented Shia intervention in government begun by Ayatollah Khomeini. The actions of the government going forward from this point will determine whether the Islamic Republic survives, or whether unrest continues and a more significant opposition to the Islamic Republic develops over the coming years, ultimately resulting in its complete downfall. Don't forget, 75% of the Iranian population was born after the Revolution--the future truly belongs to the youth of Iran.