Quinnipiac Univ. 7/14-19. All voters. MoE 2.9 for overall sample, 4.3% for Dem primary sample (7/22 results).
Dem Primary
Specter 55 (50)
Sestak 23 (21)
69 percent of respondents haven't heard of Sestak, while only 9 percent said the same of Specter. Numbers like these are expected early in an election cycle. This will tighten. As of now, Sestak's favorability ratings are 23 favorable, 7 unfavorable. For Specter, an anemic 45-44 (down from May, when he was 46-39).
The general election matchups:
Specter (D) 45 (46)
Toomey (R) 44 (37)
Sestak (D) 35 (37)
Toomey (R) 39 (35)
Toomey's favorabilities are 34-10, with 56 percent not knowing enough about him to make an opinion. The number was 27-11 in May, which means he's enjoyed a bit of a boomlet (reflected in the general election matchups). The cause? The NRSC stopped talking about Toomey as an unelectable nut, threw in the towel trying to find a moderate Republican to run, and finally endorsed Toomey. That certainly helped, but is it a lasting bump? We'll see.
Ironic, still, how Specter suddenly finds himself neck and neck in the general election against the very guy that scared him out of the Republican Party. If this persists, and as Sestak becomes better known, he may have a new argument -- electability.
Meanwhile, the good governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, should stop trying to tell Sestak what to do, and worry more about getting the pulse of his state's voters. Because not only is he apparently ignorant of his state's growing antipathy toward Specter, but he himself is suffering from record low approval ratings -- 39 approve, 53 disapprove.