In close races, people always look towards momentum in the closing days as a sign to how the final election will look. Given that both sides will inevitably claim momentum, I thought I'd try and look at outside factors to determine how to sift through campaign propoganda and find actual signs of upward momentum.
First, press coverage. Rather than pore over every article in every Virginia paper, I took a short cut. I went to the Kaine and Kilgore websites, and looked up the articles they had posted on their news section under the assumption that they would only paste articles they considered to have favorable coverage. As there were distinctly a few articles I know of missing from both sites, I suspect I am right.
The conclusion?
There were 39 favorable articles posted on the Kaine website with a publishing date of Oct. 27th or later (in other words, the past week.)
In the same time period, there were 8 favorable articles on the Kilgore website.
But this could be due to more discerning standards on Kilgore's team. So let's investigate further...
Polling:
It should be pretty apparent here that the momentum is towards Kaine. While the race is in a dead heat, the inching towards Kaine is new and across the board. For instance,
Rassuman, which puts Kaine at 46% and Kilgore at 44%, has never shown Kaine in the lead before. There was one Sept. 28th poll showing them tied, but otherwise, Kilgore had remained ahead.
The Washington Post's polling reports a similar trend, and currently has Kaine up 47% to Kilgore's 44% (Previously in this poll Kaine trailed by 4). Add to this
Survey USA showing Kaine in the lead at 47% to 45%, and I feel safe giving Kaine the polling lead. (
Mason-Dixon still shows Kilgore with a 2 point lead, to be fair.)
Regions:
Perhaps one of the most interesting things in this polling turnaround is the regional affiliations. Kaine appears to be winning in the exurbs of Northern Virginia. For the out-of-staters, the closer you get to DC, the bluer the region is. Hence Arlington County is a beacon of progressivity, Fairfax is a hodge-podge of conservative and progressive pockets, Loudon is conservative in the West, bluer in the East. And Prince William is red, but not the same red you get down South. It's been assumed that Kilgore would carry these counties by a narrow margin. Kaine didn't carry them in 2001, and Kilgore did exceptionally well there in 2001. It is worth noting that these counties can be considered Warner tax package defections from the Republican party.
Another surprsing regional interest is that Richmond is much closer than it should be in my mind. Both Kaine and Kilgore claim it as hometurf, though Kilgore also claims Gate City and Southwest as hometurf, thus making half the state his hometown. In any case, Richmond should be turning more for Kaine, their former mayor, than polls now show. The Times-Dispatch fell for Kilgore. But, Former Gov. and current mayor Doug Wilder finally got around to endorsing Kaine, so we've yet to see how his influence will pan out. That might just be the endorsement to get us over the top with minority Richmond districts.
Regionally, I consider the exurbs more important than Richmond's statistical tie, so I'll give this to Kaine. (And because he got the Roanoke Times endorsement), but not without the caveat that Kilgore is a master at the 72 hour plan in Southwest. Expect him to bring them out in droves from Scott County, etc.
Russ Potts:
If you haven't read the Russ Potts profile in today's Washington Post, take the time. It is a stirring piece. Russ Potts falls into my camp as the honest Republican who has no shot against the party machinery. A quote from the article:
Potts, a Republican state senator from Winchester who's running as an independent, quickly adds that he's not yet officially conceding that his long-shot bid has flopped. But his shoulders are slumped, his voice is down, and his words flit from quiet admissions of failure to bitter cuts at his opponents -- especially Jerry Kilgore.
Here's one aimed at the GOP candidate: "All of a sudden, Kilgore is Mr. Death Penalty because he has to take your mind off the fact that he has no transportation plan, no education plan. His administration would be dominated by social issues while everything else deteriorates."
And another: "With Jerry Kilgore, you're going to have to crater one of the best higher education systems in the country."
Potts eagerly piles on the criticisms of Kilgore, whose campaign he calls cynical and dishonest. He all but outright endorses Democrat Tim Kaine. "I can't do that," Potts says, and then he smiles and does what he can do: He hits Kilgore again.
The argument has been whether Potts hurts Kilgore by drawing Republican votes, or Kaine by drawing disaffected Republican votes. I think he hurts Kilgore more. Plus, a friend of my enemy, etc.
The Undecideds:
This one I will grant to Kilgore. THeir website is set up much better to appeal to Independents and Undecideds who are only now looking at the issues. (Hear that Kaine campaign?) Plus, when in doubt, the state's unabashed preference for the GOP will decide. Also, the GOP GOTV machine is unrivaled. They will bring voters that we didn't know existed.
Conclusion:
Kaine can easily pull this off, but I am not comfortable with within the margin of error polling. A 2 point lead is easy to erase with GOTV. That being said, momentum is clearly on Kaine's side. The only question is, is it too late? I would not be surprised if this election is within 1,000 votes.