Earlier today, I saw Jane Hamsher of Firedoglake appear on MSNBC for a brief segment with Andrea Mitchell. Jane performed fantastically, making a number of strong points, the most important of which was that there was strong opposition among progressives in the House to passing a health care plan that didn't include a strong, universally available plan that can't drop you if you get sick, and can't exclude you for pre-existing conditions -- that is, the plan that's become known as the "public option."
At one point toward the end of the interview, Mitchell asks Jane essentially how she sees things playing out given that certain Senate Democrats say no plan with a public option can pass, while progressive House Dems say no plan without it can pass.
Jane answers, at least in part, by saying that she'd like to see Democratic Senators like Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Max Baucus (D-MT) filibuster a Democratic health care bill with a strong public option in it -- meaning that she's essentially daring them to stand up and publicly stand in the way of getting to a vote on such a bill. Mitchell, though, says, "That's not going to happen."
That's where Rosen's "Church of the Savvy" comes in. For those unfamiliar with the term, here's a brief explanation, though not Jay's own. But you don't even really need to read that much about what the Church of the Savvy is once I tell you that I think Mitchell's objection exemplifies it perfectly. (Jay may disagree, and it's his invention, so I'd find another term if necessary, but this is what I think of when he says it.)
"That's not going to happen."
Jane answers very well by going back to her message, but not before putting the question right back to Mitchell: "Why not?" Whereupon Mitchell launches into the answer to some other, imaginary question, apparently something along the lines of, "Well, why won't Evan Bayh change his vote and support the public option," which is an entirely different question, and one which Mitchell is prepared to answer, probably because Bayh has told her his answer to that one. But unfortunately, nobody was asking that. Jane asked why Evan Bayh won't get on the floor and put himself publicly and visibly in the way of a public option.
I, of course, wanted to give a procedural answer. Jane's answer was the right answer for messaging. That is, after it became clear that Mitchell wasn't actually discussing the reality behind Bayh's bluster, but just repeating what Bayh or Senators in his camp have told the press, she went right on to deliver more messaging about the issue. For myself, though...
Not going to happen?
But that's what their threats mean, Andrea. To say that no plan with a public option can pass the Senate means -- when there are 60 Democratic votes* -- that Democrats like Bayh and Baucus will have to stand with Republicans in filibustering a public option in order to prevent it from getting to a vote. Unless Bayh and Baucus are saying there aren't 50 votes for it, either, which is certainly something I haven't heard said yet.
Now, I'm sure it won't happen in the sense that neither Baucus nor Bayh are likely have the guts to stand on the Senate floor and do the filibustering themselves, but in order for their threat that no public option can pass to mean anything in the real world, it means that even if they chicken out on the speeches, they'll have to vote with Republicans when all the shouting ends. I'd like to see them put in that position and asked at long last where they stand, and with which side they'll cast their votes.
That's what Jane meant, Andrea.
It won't happen? It has to happen, Andrea. Otherwise, all of the bluster about the public option not having the votes in the Senate was bull, and all the Church of the Savvy reporting about "the reality" in the Senate will have been wrong, and based on nothing but a lot of hot air and empty threats.
If the Democratic Senators who tell you, whether off the record or on, that the public option can't pass the Senate aren't willing to stand up and vote with Republicans on a filibuster, then they're wrong and the public option can pass the Senate.
So, back to you on that one, Andrea. Is that going to happen?