The "Still Barely Conscious After the Weekend in Pittsburgh" Edition (and was anyone else from NN on my Los Angeles-bound flight that had to abort its first landing? Fun, wasn't it?).
NV-Gov: Has the GOP Finally Found Its Man?
It is hard to imagine that the Nevada GOP would be disloyal to a guy that has an approval rating below the age of consent. Alas, it has been an open secret for some time that the Republican Party has been fishing for someone to primary Governor Jim Gibbons. It appears that they finally have their man: former state Attorney General and federal judge Brian Sandoval, who just announced that he is leaving the bench. The irony of the situation is that Sandoval owed his judgeship to Harry Reid, who persuaded President Bush to appoint Sandoval to the bench in 2004. Sandoval's likely Democratic opponent? Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, the forty-something son of the Senator. As he often does when it comes to politics in the Silver State, Jon Ralston is on top of the situation.
WI-Gov: Jim Doyle Heads to the Sidelines--Won't Seek A Third Term
This is not a complete shock, given the relative quiet surrounding the race and his flagging poll numbers, but Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle made it official today that he will be stepping down after two terms as the chief executive of the state (Wisconsin does not have a two-term limit on their governors). Democrats are likely to turn to Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton, while the GOP field is still reasonably fluid, with the two leading candidates being former Congressman and onetime Senate aspirant Mark Neumann, as well as Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker. New potential candidates are already emerging, including Milwaukee's Democratic Mayor Tom Barrett (recovering from a brutal attack over the weekend when he tried to protect a woman in a domestic dispute) and 2004 Feingold challenger Tim Michels. One Republican who quickly killed speculation was SE Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who announced today that he was staying in the House.
IL-Sen: Rasmussen Gives Republicans Slight Lead in Senate Race
With the now-standard caveat that it is from Rasmussen (and the fact that no less than three emails have hit my inbox from conservatives extolling their polling is awfully telling), we have new numbers in the Illinois Senate race. Ras stakes Republican Congressman Mark Kirk to a three-point lead over Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, 41% to 38%. In other Illinois Senate news, Adam Doster over at Progress Illinois offers a pretty solid takedown of Kirk's latest antics on the health care crisis.
VA-Gov: McDonnell Either Has Modest or Sizeable Lead, According To WaPo
A new Washington Post poll, conducted late last week in the state of Virginia, either has really bad news or really good news for Democrat Creigh Deeds, depending on how you ginsu the numbers. The part of the story getting the biggest play is the results among "likely voters", which has McDonnell out in front by fifteen points (54-39) of Deeds. However, among registered voters, that GOP edge is cut by more than half (47-40). This has been a recent trend of note, as several surveys have shown markedly different findings when the likely voter screen is added. Even more interesting, and a potential ray of light in this survey for Deeds: when limited to just the roughly half of registered voters whose vote choice is locked in, Deeds actually has a two-point edge over McDonnell (25-23). The fact that over half of the electorate is not locked in to a particular candidate foretells a very fluid contest.
NY-Gov: Paterson's Numbers Still Abysmal, According to Q Poll
Just when you thought that New York Governor David Paterson's numbers couldn't get any worse, they got worse. Quinnipiac hits the Empire State once again, and finds that Andrew Cuomo now crushes the incumbent Governor 61-15 in a potential Democratic primary. The most telling stat: Cuomo even leads Governor Paterson by over twenty points among African-American voters (45-24). In a general election trial heat against Republican Rudy Giuliani, Cuomo has a modest lead (48-39), while Paterson trails the former NYC Mayor by twenty (53-33).
NV-03: Republicans Land Challenger for Democratic Freshman Dina Titus
This had been rumored about a month ago, but it is now reality: Democratic rookie Congresswoman Dina Titus has drawn a challenger for 2010: City National Bank exec John Guedry. Titus dispatched three-term GOP incumbent Jon Porter last year, winning 47-42 (a lot of indies in that race).
IA-Sen/IA-01: Is Grassley About To Get A Legit Opponent?
Chalk this up as the most intriguing item on the political rumor mill over the last day or two: a stray item from the Des Moines Register started the speculation off by claiming that a prominent Democrat with name recognition and cash was leaning towards jumping in the race. That led Politico to speculate that said Democrat was Bruce Braley, who has a pretty solid Rolodex from his days as a lawyer, and has been increasingly (and vocally) critical of Grassley's role in trying to stymie health care reform. It seems a little farfetched (as Senate Guru pointed out, Braley has not been raising money in the first two quarters like a guy running statewide), but if anyone not named Tom Vilsack could "pull the (political) plug on Grandpa", Braley would be as good a candidate as the Democrats could hope for.
NJ-Gov: Christie's Ethics Take A Continued Beating
Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie took a bit of a thrashing in the news this weekend (while his opponent, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, was on the stage at Netroots Nation). On Sunday, The New York Times ran a story that should sound eerily familiar: Christie running for public office as an ethics crusader. The NYT points out, however, that once elected (in this case, to the Morris County Board of Freeholders in the mid-90s), he wound up giving out hundreds of no-bid contracts, the very time of contracts he campaigned against when running for office. Then, today, Christie continued to be pushed on the defensive over his potentially illegal conversations with Karl Rove about statewide office in New Jersey, while he was still working as a U.S. Attorney. Christie, unsurprisingly, maintains that nothing illegal or improper took place. In one slight surprise, the Sierra Club eschewed an endorsement of the incumbent, instead choosing to endorse Independent Chris Daggett, who served as an environmental liaison to former GOP Governor Tom Kean.
MA-Gov: Patrick Has Low Approval, But Still In Thick of Re-Election Race
This has to be one of the more intriguing polling anomalies in recent memory. A new poll shows Democratic Governor Deval Patrick with absolutely woeful job approval in Massachusetts, but the same poll also shows him within striking distance of re-election. This is a sign, perhaps, of how the Democratic brand name resonates in a place like Massachusetts. The poll, conducted last week for MassInsight by the folks at Opinion Dynamics, showed that Deval Patrick had just 19% job approval, with 77% disapproving. Yet Patrick was tied up with Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill against either Republican aspirant. Against health care executive Charlie Baker, it was Patrick 20, Cahill 20, and Baker 19. Against 2006 Indie candidate Christy Mihos, it was Patrick 24, Cahill 24, and Mihos 16. This second set of numbers is the most intriguing: that means that at least someone in the state disapproves of Patrick, but intends to vote for him anyway!