Over the past couple of years, many of us (myself included) were preoccupied with the impact of climate change along the American East and West coast. But if this study is correct, flooded real estate may be the least of the country's worries as the environmental bulls-eye could planted smack dab in the middle of our food producing Midwestern states.
Climate change is, in fact, a regional issue, but not in the short-term way that the coal senators think, according to new analysis from The Nature Conservancy. The environmental group finds that rural Midwestern states will face the greatest consequences of climate change. The three that will face the steepest rise in temperature -- Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa -- are farm states whose soil will be significantly less productive as temperatures rise more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit there by 2100.....
The consequences to these farm states will be far reaching. As droughts become more common, their soil and climate will begin to look more like their neighbors' to the south in Texas and Mexico.
The ten-degree rise in temperature in the three states assumes that carbon emissions will continue their rate of increase. If the world's population somehow manages to reverse greenhouse gas emissions, the temperature is still expected to rise more than three degrees, which would still devastate those states' economies. A study released Thursday by Columbia University adds further concern about the viability of soybeans, corn and cotton -- the expected temperature rise over the next century from even a slow warming scenario could decrease crop yields by 30 to 46 percent.
"To many, climate change doesn't seem real until it affects them, in their backyards," said Jonathan Hoekstra, director of climate change for The Nature Conservancy. "In many states across the country, the weather and landscapes could be nearly unrecognizable in 100 years."
I'm not a scientist so I won't go into detail over the data. The report can be found here but I do think the results summary is pretty clear.
The Nature Conservancy with support from the University of Washington analyzed the IPCC data under three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: a global curbing in the rate of emissions released into the atmosphere each year over the next century (B1 scenario), a mid-21st century leveling-off of emissions (A1B scenario), and a continual increasing in the rate of emissions over the next century (A2 scenario).
All three scenarios are feasible based on past and current emission trends.
In 1990, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were 354 parts per million (ppm) and increased at a rate of 1.3 ppm per year until reaching a level of 367 ppm in 2000. Between 2000 and today, carbon dioxide concentrations increased at a rate of 2.44 ppm per year until their current level of 389 ppm.
If emissions continue at that current rate, carbon dioxide concentrations will be 609 ppm by the end of the century. However, as demonstrated by the 1990s emission rate nearly doubling in the following decade, the rate of emissions will likely continue to increase over the next 100 years. Growing populations, industrialization and deforestation around the world also make it likely that emission rates will rapidly increase over the next century.
Scenario B1 assumes a decrease in emission rates over the next century for a total concentration of 538ppm by 2100. Scenario A1B assumes a gradual leveling off of emission rates for a total concentration of 711ppm and scenario A2 assumes an increase in emission rates for concentrations of 857ppm by 2100.
The largest temperature increases were projected under the A2 scenario with some states having annual temperature increases of more than 10 degrees F. Even under the lowest B1 emission scenario, nearly every state is projected to experience temperature increases well above the 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) threshold many scientists say will cause irreversible impacts to the Earth’s lands, waters, wildlife and human communities.
I don't want to say the sky is falling, but in a worst-case scenario, we would see a shortage of important crops and a migration not seen since the Dust Bowl and Great Depression. It's time for Midwestern members of Congress to wake up.