Not in so many words of course, but that's the gist of an Independent interview with Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA).
For those who have been watching the ongoing Peak Oil story play out - there were rumors last year at The Oil Drum that the IEA was coming out with a bombshell announcement in regards to long-term oil supplies in November, but such an announcement was allegedly suppressed for reasons unknown.
The Independent reports:
Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.
But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.
The most important information:
The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.
This decline rate works out to drop in oil production from declining fields by roughly 50% in approximately 11 years. The only thing that can offset this decline are new discoveries.
The Independent summarizes the report's conclusions:
In its first-ever assessment of the world's major oil fields, the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply.
Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.
In most fields, oil production has now peaked, which means that other sources of supply have to be found to meet existing demand.
And the kicker:
Even if demand remained steady, the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudi Arabias if it is to keep up with the expected increase in demand between now and 2030, Dr Birol said.
As anyone knows who has been watching this play out, this is simply impossible and cannot be done.
I'm hoping Jerome a Paris has a better write up of this later. But, the implications of this becoming, for all intents and purposes, the official IEA position is rather stark. Very clearly, a significant portion of the powers-that-be are very, very worried that we will be having big, big problems in the years ahead and that evidence of this cannot be ignored for what are effectively ideological reasons. And that recognition by the establishment, even a tiny portion of it, is important.