Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 8/3-5. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/25-27 results)
Corzine (D) 40 (39)
Christie (R) 48 (46)
Surprising little movement in the last several months. Corzine is wallowing in the panic zone for an incumbent, and Christie is hovering around the 50 percent mark. This poll is actually the most optimistic for Corzine of the most recent batch. Monmouth/Gannett has it at Christie 50, Corzine 36. PPP has it at Christie 50, Corzine 36. And even a Democratic poll from Global Strategy Group had it Christie 42, Corzine 35.
Corzine's problem is that people really don't like him:
Jon Corzine (D)
Approve 35 (36)
Disapprove 56 (55)
Don't know 9 (9)
Chris Christie (R)
Approve 44 (38)
Disapprove 29 (15)
Don't know 27 (47)
Yet Christie isn't having an easy go of it either. He went from a +23 favorability in May to a +15 this week. Sure, that is world's better than Corzine's -21, but if the Corzine strategy is to grind Christie down, he's having some success. And with 27 percent of voters still unable to provide an opinion about Christie, there's further room to negatively define him. That is obviously Corzine's best bet to reelection despite his terrible numbers -- drag Christie's favorabilities down, while counting on his state's penchant for giving Republicans false hope.
Note that Obama still has a hefty 62-31 approval rating in New Jersey, and his image will play a large role in this race.
On the web: Corzine for governor