A veritable pollucopia today. Seven different polls? On a random Thursday in September? It's good to be alive, isn't it?
VA-Gov: Rasmussen Has McDonnell Up Only Two Points In VA
Qualify this as a surprise: a day after Clarus Research had Virginia's Governors race down to a five-point race, the pollsters at Rasmussen actually find a tighter race, with Republican Bob McDonnell only leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by two points (48-46). This was a dramatic shift from two weeks ago, when Rasmussen had it as a nine-point race.
According to Rasmussen, the thesis issue might be having some kind of effect:
The survey two weeks ago was conducted shortly after The Washington Post ran news stories about a thesis paper written by McDonnell in 1989. The thesis reflected very conservative views on the role of women in society and other topics. Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters now say the writings are at least somewhat important in terms of how they will vote. That’s up from 36% in the previous survey. The number of unaffiliated voters who consider the writings important is up to 47%.
Daily Kos is also looking at the Virginia Governor's race. Expect numbers on this race soon.
CT-Sen: Q-Poll Confirms DK Findings From Earlier In the Week
According to Quinnipiac, Democratic Senator Chris Dodd has resurrected his political career just a little bit over the past several weeks, and is creeping closer to Republican challenger Rob Simmons. The Q poll has Simmons leading Dodd by five points (44-39), roughly halving the margin Simmons enjoyed over the summer. Simmons easily leads the GOP primary, although self-funder Linda McMahon was not polled. Dodd has a commanding lead over Merrick Alpert in the Democratic primary. Quinnipiac's poll confirms numbers issued here at Daily Kos earlier in the week, when we had the incumbent trailing by just four points.
MA-Sen: Coakley With Sizeable Primary and General Election Leads
As the bill to name an interim replacement for the late Senator Edward Kennedy continues to make its way through the Massachusetts state legislature, a new poll by Suffolk University shows that Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley would be heavily favored to sweep both the primary and general elections here. Coakley leads the Democratic primary with 47% of the vote, with no other Democrat managing to rise out of the single digits. In a potential general election match-up with Republican state Senator Scott Brown, Coakley has a thirty-point edge (54-24). Meanwhile, a slight majority (55-41) of Bay State residents favor changing the state laws to accommodate for an interim replacement for Kennedy until the special election concludes in January.
NC-Sen: Burr Leading By Modest Margin, According to Rasmussen
Rasmussen is on quite the Senate binge this week. After giving us new data in Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado earlier in the week, they take on the Tar Heel State. Their numbers have incumbent Richard Burr leading his three most likely Democratic challengers, but with just 48% against each one. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall comes closest (48-38). This poll gets some interesting analysis from the boys at PPP, who just polled in North Carolina. Jensen at PPP sees a number of similarities between the two polls. His own critique (and one I have noticed with Rasmussen, as well), is that their name recognition for relatively unknown candidates (Democrat Ken Lewis, in this case) always seems to be high.
NJ-Gov: PPP Polls The Next-Best Options In New Jersey
Among some commenters here at DK, it has been an article of faith throughout the 2009 elections that any Democrat other than Governor Jon Corzine would sail through this election. The crew at PPP explored just that possibility. The final verdict? Newark Mayor Cory Booker does only as well as Corzine, and Congressman Frank Pallone actually fares considerably worse. Both would trail Christie: Booker by eight points, and Pallone by twenty points.
NY-Sen: Pataki and Gillibrand Still In Dead Heat, According to Marist
After looking at the gubernatorial race yesterday, the folks at Marist turn their attention to the U.S. Senate race. Republicans appear to be down to one potential game-breaking candidate, in the person of former Governor George Pataki. In the current Marist poll, Pataki has a slight lead over Gillibrand, with a four-point edge (48-44). If for some reason Pataki doesn't run (and he has been quiet), it is hard to imagine a Republican in the bullpen who can give Gillibrand a first-tier challenge. Marist, working off of a rumor from a few weeks back, tested a Gillibrand vs. Spitzer primary. More on Spitzer later, but suffice it to say that Senator Gillibrand apparently does not need to fear a second act from Eliot Spitzer.
OR-Gov: Kitzhaber With Sizeable Early Lead, According To New Poll
On the day when he officially got a primary challenge from Bill Bradbury, former Governor John Kitzhaber got some good news about his 2010 attempt to reclaim the office he held for eight years. Kitzhaber has a double-digit lead over either state legislator Jason Atkinson (43-23) or 2008 statewide candidate (and former Kulongoski staffer-turned-Republican) Allen Alley (46-21), according to new numbers from local pollsters Davis, Hibbits, and Midghall. The inability to rise above 50% should be a point of concern for Kitzhaber. Even though he is not technically an incumbent, he has virtual incumbent status in this race by virtue of his near-decade leading the state from 1995 to 2003.
TX-Gov: Rasmussen Has KBH Leading Perry In A Cliffhanger
Rasmussen, going for some kind of marathon achievement award, polls Texas as well, and finds that Kay Bailey Hutchison now holds a small lead in the potentially explosive gubernatorial primary against incumbent Governor Rick Perry. According to this week's poll, Hutchison has 40%, Perry has 38%, and tea partier Debra Medina has 3%. Side note--you mean to tell me that the tea party wingnuts in Texas felt that Rick Perry wasn't far enough to the right for them? Really?!?
NY-Sen: Not so Fast, Eliot
As alluded to earlier, back at the start of the month, it appeared that Eliot Spitzer might be planning a political comeback in 2010. A SurveyUSA poll at the time hinted that he might have some public support for such a move. This week's Marist poll, on the other hand, seems to slam the door shut on such a notion. Asked point-blank if they were interested in an Eliot Spitzer political comeback somewhere on the ballot, 27% said "yes" while 69% said "no". Furthermore, in the offices that he was alleged to be speaking (Comptroller or Senator), he would get beat by the Democratic incumbents. Gillibrand would blast him 57-29, while Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli would beat him by a ten-point margin (49-39).
MA-Sen: Could It Be Senator Dukakis?
As the Massachusetts state legislature continues to consider a bill allowing for an interim appointment to the Senate in advance of the January special election, an interesting name popped up for the spot: former presidential nominee Michael Dukakis. Dukakis would fit the bill well, he's likely to be a solid progressive vote, and he harbors no apparent political ambitions. If the bill makes it through the legislature, an interim appointment could be made by Governor Patrick as early as next week.