Climate change is a complex science. Throw in the effects on fluctuating populations of indigenous and invasive species, and the processes become so interdependent that most researchers shy away. But one Arctic ecologist has taken on the challenge, and like any good scientist, his starting point is simple in principle: empirical data. That new ecological study finds that change is afoot all across the vast, icy region, and the likely agent of change is climate change.
The lead scientist, Dr. Eric Post of Penn State University, summarized his findings for Daily Kos. "In general, I'm interested in ecological dynamics at many levels of organization and across multiple scales of space and time. That's the approach we used in this study. We examined vascular and nonvascular plants, migratory and nonmigratory animals, vertebrates and invertebrates, saltwater and freshwater, on the land or in the air," said Post. "And we noted another paper which measured a large release of methane from the tundra in Northeast Greenland that may have been related to soil microbial activity. It doesn't really matter where or at what scale you look. Everything is changing, and changing fast, in the Arctic."
That change is almost certainly driven by a worldwide acceleration in climate change. The global delta has changed just in the last few years as recent data accrues in the running average. Prof. Michael Mann, also of Penn State, noted that "The warming of the globe since the beginning of the record in the mid 19th century is now just under one degree Celsius, or about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit. For some reason, the out-dated number of one degree Fahrenheit continues to get tossed around."
One and half degrees on either temperature scale may not sound like much. But if it occurs in a marine or coastal environment where the ambient temperature regularly hovers around the freezing point of water, the effect is a classic, major tipping point. Moreover, warming is amplified in the Arctic circle for several reasons. The images below, courtesy of the always helpful artist/author Karen Wehrstein, illustrate one powerful process; on the left, incident sunlight is reflected off shiny ice and snow back into space. As the ice cap recedes, more sunlight is absorbed by the relatively darker water and land, retaining more heat, causing more melting.
The process feeds back, viciously. Unless something slows it down, the end result will be an ice free Arctic during at least part of the year, perhaps in as little as a decade or two, and a north polar change of as much as 5 to 8 degrees by the end of the century. A change of this magnitude will be a boon to some organisms and a bust for others. Life is opportunistic. Some microbes -- including dangerous algal blooms -- insects and other arthropods, and small vertebrates may benefit. But the delicate Arctic food chain, along with narwhals, polar bears, caribou, and slower growing plants in particular are vulnerable to rapid warming. Those already threatened may go extinct.
Fresh melt water also threatens the air and ocean currents of the entire northern hemisphere. An influx of warmer, fresher water could well disrupt the great ocean conveyors and jet streams, bringing climatic instability characterized by periods of alternating heat waves, drought, record rainfall, intense tropical cyclones, dust bowls, and bleak winter cold snaps starting with the densely populated eastern US seaboard and western Europe.
That's all reason for concern. But now for the really scary part (More here):
GLOBAL WARMING HYSTERIA: THE NEW FACE OF THE "PRO-DEATH" AGENDA
... Ultimately, climate change hysteria rests on an unbiblical view of God, mankind, and the environment. Come and hear how the Cornwall Alliance is pushing back--producing ground-breaking studies on Biblical environmentalism, educating pastors and churches across the country, and activating thousands of Christians to rally against the hype ... Learn why policies to fight alleged man-made global warming will instead cause hundreds of millions of premature deaths throughout this century, and how human liberty, responsibility, and flourishing are the key to a healthier environment.
Thomas Frank, author of the best seller What's the Matter with Kansas?, points out in both lectures and in his latest book, The Wrecking Crew, that conservatism is not just a movement, it's an industry. In the intersection of science and US policy, there is no better funded industry than climate change denial. It is bankrolled by the most profitable multinational corporations in world history. And to hear the far right talk about it at the recent Values Voters Summit -- the website where that quote above was posted -- Jesus must be a major shareholder.