Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 8/31/2009-9/3/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (8/24-28/2009 results):
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
---|
PRESIDENT OBAMA | 52 (55) | 43 (40) | -6 |
| | | |
PELOSI: | 32 (33) | 59 (58) | -2 |
REID: | 31 (32) | 58 (57) | -2 |
McCONNELL: | 19 (18) | 63 (64) | +2 |
BOEHNER: | 15 (14) | 63 (64) | +2 |
| | | |
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: | 39 (40) | 56 (54) | -3 |
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: | 18 (14) | 69 (73) | +8 |
| | | |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 39 (43) | 52 (50) | -6 |
REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 23 (20) | 69 (71) | +5 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
This week's edition of the tracker should go a long way towards dispelling any myths about a poll sponsored by a progressive website being "in the tank" for Democrats.
The sharpest drops we have seen all year in the tracking poll, and they uniformly fell on the Democrats, whether the grievance was with the party, its Congressional delegation, or its president. At the same time, we get sharp increases for Republicans and their congressional delegation.
Throw in the narrowest margin on our "Congressional Ballot test", and it is quite the buffet of polling drear this week.
About the only cause for optimism (or, at a minimum, the absence of pessimism) this week is that these results are, actually, somewhat isolated. Contrary to our trends this week, Gallup's numbers have actually seen a nice uptick for the President this week (from 50% approval over the weekend to 55% on Thursday). Other trackers and national numbers have held, more or less, constant.
But the big takeaway from this week is that, once again, we see how base-driven both the Democratic slump and the Republican resurgence are. Consider the following trends over the last three months:
Change in Favorability: Democratic Party (From 6/4 to 9/3)
OVERALL: - 10 (From 49 to 39)
DEMOCRATS: - 17 (From 84 to 67)
INDEPENDENTS: - 12 (From 48 to 36)
REPUBLICANS: No Change (From 4 to 4)
In this often tumultous summer, the Democratic Party brand name has taken a bit of a beating with Independents. But the real hemorrhaging has been with their Democratic base, and it has been a fairly recent convention: more than half of that seventeen point dip has occurred in the last three weeks.
Meanwhile, look at the Republican improvement has taken place:
Change in Favorability: Republican Party (From 6/4 to 9/3)
OVERALL: +3 (from 20 to 23)
REPUBLICANS: +12 (from 61 to 73)
INDEPENDENTS: No Change (From 11 to 11)
DEMOCRATS: +2 (From 4 to 6)
This is not, as some pundits have opined, middle-of-the-road voters rushing to embrace the GOP's message. This is exclusively a resurrection by the base.
This poll, unsavory as it may be, seems to be teaching a very specific lesson. While the great debate has been whether or not Democrats will lose "the vital center" if they push hard for aggressive health care reforms, a greater debate which is being ignored is whether or not the Democrats lose their own base if they punt on the issue.
And there is no shortage of evidence to suggest that the base should be the Democrats primary concern. Our "generic ballot test" asks voters whether they would rather see more Democrats or Republican in Congress next year.
Democrats only hold 70% of their base on that question. The Republicans hold onto 85% of their base. This strongly correlates to the (growing) conventional wisdom that the Democratic base may do something as bad as vote Republican--they may simply choose not to vote.
And here's a nickel's worth of free advice to the Obama White House--ditching critical parts of health care reform to appease Republicans, over 90% of which don't like you anyway, is not the magic elixir that will inspire Democrats to vote in mass numbers.