Earlier today, I cited Jonathan Cohn at TNR because he noted the with all the punditry and hyperventilation:
Despite all of the setbacks and all of the missed opportunities--despite this train wreck of a month--the situation remains remarkably similar to what it was before the recess.
For more proof of this, Gallup has a new poll out today:
Bottom Line
A month of town-hall meetings across the country during Congress' August recess has hardly budged Americans' views about passing a healthcare reform bill, or helped many more Americans form an opinion. The public is as divided over healthcare reform today as at the beginning of August (37% in favor and 39% opposed), with a large segment still undecided.
Although the two sides on healthcare reform are about evenly matched numerically, opponents may have a political edge. The 82% of reform opponents saying the issue will be a major factor in their vote for Congress next year eclipses the 62% of reform advocates who say the same.
There's no question the wind is in the face of supporters and at the back of opponents, but this is Sep '09, not Nov '10.
Passing reform will change the numbers, not convince the opponents (men, seniors, and independents the biggest negative groups) but the undecideds have room to change depending on outcome of health reform.
In the meantime, the numbers look similar to a month ago, and there's plenty of action left before it's over (we don't even have a bill yet.) Don't bet against health reform passing... when it does, the numbers will change. To what? We'll see.