As we hit the middle of the week, there is a couple of big campaign moves, a couple of interesting polls, and one very interesting career move out of Vermont.
NATIONAL: New AP/GfK Poll Paints Ugly Picture for Obama/Dems
It is hard, given their recent track record, not to be a little skeptical about anything put out by the AP, but this poll doesn't have any obvious flaws, and it paints a perilous picture for Democrats. President Obama's approval is now purely middling (50/49), with net negative approval on the economy, health care, taxes, and unemployment. The sample disapproved of the president's health care reform proposal, and overwhelmingly maintained that any bill should have Republican support. This clarifies one thing: President Obama is going to have to not only sell his reform package, he is going to have to convince voters of why it is best for the Democrats to go it alone.
MA-Sen: Coakley Leads Very Early Poll As Field Grows
As the Democratic field to replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy appears to be growing exponentially, a very early look at the race from Rasmussen shows that state Attorney General Martha Coakley has a sizeable lead over the field. Of course, this stands to reason on one simple level: she is the only candidate in the proposed field to have been elected statewide. The other four named challengers in the Ras poll were all Congressmen, and thus have only faced one-tenth of the voters in their political careers. Coakley leads with 38%. The leading member from the House delegation, Stephen Lynch, had just 11%.
NY-23: Early Internal Poll On House Special Gives GOP Edge
An internal poll (so adjust your salt intake accordingly) for Conservative Party candidate Douglas Hoffman shows that both he and Democrat Bill Owens trailing Republican DeDe Scozzafava in the upcoming special election to replace Republican John McHugh (who accepted the post of Secretary of the Army). According to the poll by McLaughlin and Associates, Scozzafava leads with 30%, with Owens trailing at 20% and Hoffman at 19%.
VA-Gov: McDonnell Getting Heat For 2003 Comments
Conservative defense of Bob McDonnell's 1989 manifesto often centers on how old the document is. What, then, is there to be said about a McDonnell statement from 2003, when he appears to suggest that gays may not be fit to serve as judges, because their actions might disqualify them. The NBC affiliate in DC picks up on a unique change in tone from the GOP nominee:
One change, though -- in 2003, he described the quotes as "inartful" but now he says he denies altogether the accuracy of how they were reported. So even if his views on these subjects have evolved, so too have his recollections of events.
NC-Sen: Burr Gets First Major Challenger--It's Marshall
This had been the subject of rumors for months, but it was made official yesterday: Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is running for the U.S. Senate in 2010. Marshall will face freshman Republican Richard Burr, whose poll numbers have been flagging this year. One note of trepidation for Democrats: PPP teased today that while Burr's approval numbers are still weak, his head-to-head numbers show that the Democrats are not much stronger in the Tar Heel State right now.
SC-Gov: The Sanford Career Dissipation March Continues
It is getting progressively more difficult to find a way that South Carolina's Republican Governor, Mark Sanford, is going to leave 2009 with his career intact. Now, virtually all of the GOP members of the state legislature are calling for his resignation. Sanford, for his part, has been somewhat obstinate throughout this ordeal, and has refused to voluntarily pull the trigger on a resignation.
VT-Gov: Does GOP Party Switch Portend A Gubernatorial Bid?
As had been rumored for several days, Democratic state auditor Thomas Salmon announced that he will be switching to the Republican Party, in a move marked partially by ideology, but apparently was also inspired by a bit of personal pique. Salmon had been in a fairly ugly dispute with the Democrats in the state legislature, and had repeatedly complained that his suggestions for governance had been rebuffed by the legislature.
AK-Gov: Top-Tier Democratic Candidate Makes It Official
A Democrat who acquitted himself well in a statewide bid for Congress in 2008 will be running statewide again in the 2010 midterms, this time for Governor. Ethan Berkowitz, who ran neck-and-neck with longtime Congressman Don Young and held him under 50% of the vote, will run against Alaska's appointed replacement for Sarah Palin, Sean Parnell. It is unlikely, of course, that either Berkowitz or Parnell will have the benefit of a clear primary.
MA-Gov: Major Independent Candidate For 2010 As Cahill Makes A Bid
This was rumored from the millisecond that he left the Democratic Party earlier in the year, but now it is official: Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick will not only face a Republican challenger in 2010, he will also face an independent challenge from state treasurer Tim Cahill. Cahill, who switched from Democrat to Independent this Spring, has been polling relatively evenly with both Patrick and the GOP candidates, setting up the possibility for a true three-man race for Governor of Massachusetts next year. Christy Mihos, after briefly flirting with a Senate bid, appears to be locked into a gubernatorial bid, along with health care executive Charlie Baker.
MO-08: Entrenched GOP Incumbent Gets 2010 Democratic Challenger
Jo Ann Emerson, who has been locked into her seat in rural Missouri since she replaced her late husband in 1996, has a fairly intriguing challenger lined up for 2010. His name is Tommy Sowers, and he is a military veteran and a teacher, a combination that has worked well politically in the past (Tim Walz immediately comes to mind). Sowers will certainly have his work cut out for him: the Missouri 8th is a reliably conservative district which went 62-36 for John McCain in 2008.