So many Deaniacs have said, "Well, if Kerry screws up, there is room for Dean."
Kerry will NOT screw up. Kerry does not take that kind of political risk, he does not say things that parse into hard "stumbling" soundbites and that is why he speaks the way he does in the first place. That is the essence of his electability and finesse as a politician, he will not screw up the way Dean allegedly does because he does not make the kind of bold moves or statements that can be used as an "he screwed up" club to beat him with.
Similarly in the election, if his positives can inch above Bush, as some polls already show, he will not screw that up, he will ride those numbers well, for that is his political skill and his gravitas. That's why he is reliable.
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I'm not saying Kerry has it totally in the bag, I'm just saying other candidates will have to climb up, they will have to be impressive, because Kerry is not going to stumble. They are far enough behind that inching up has time against it, and a radical shift might happen if, say, Clark catches Osama himself, but not because Kerry does something causing utter revulsion in the public.
I'm also not saying this is all bad, in fact, I want a "steady as you go" President that will not be so bold as to do the rash world destabalizing things we see from the Bush admin, Kerry would not have sacrificed NATO, et cetera, or promote total nut cases for the judiciary. I do, however, believe that none of the candidates (except Kucinich and Sharpton) have this sort of conservative approach to mucking with the real world, and all of them going back to Braun would be reliable to "not screw up" in that sense, to be "conservative" in the dictionary sense of the term with real world policy, e.g. Dean's Healthcare plan which is "bold" in one sense is merely "clever tweaking" of a working system in another sense.
However, I admit I also believe that in the world of political rhetoric it's important to be willing to shake things up right now. Otherwise the republicans will continue to dominate the rhetoric, and will continue to make things like preemptive war the new status quo.
Playing it safe rhetorically last year meant, "don't criticize Bush, expecially on the war" and that's a losing proposition. It looks to me that so far most Democrats evidently want a "safe bet", and therefore I would have to say they are choosing wisely by voting Kerry, a man that prefers to find the safest bet he can.