Mary Cheney has had no discernible effect on this election, other than making anyone (including Chris Matthews and Pat Buchanan) uncomfortable with the word 'lesbian' squirm on televison.
Zogby's tracking poll has Kerry and Bush with nearly identical fav/unfav 53/44 for days without moving Kerry's unfav down after the debate. What happened is that Bush's fav's went up briefly because he didn't drool, and to the faithful, that was enough for a time. Gallup shows the same. And it will bother the moralistic Blue Hairs that deserted Nixon only when they found out he cursed in the Oval Office (and not before).
We call these millions of folks the "blue-hairs" - they never forgive. Remember Phil Crane's Brother? Dan? Representative of Illinois? . . . Crane was trounced after a 17-year-old intern testified that she'd tried (and eventually succeeded) to seduce him [while other candidates on the left have survived far more damaging allegations.] They never forgive.
And remember Bush's DUI conviction revelation 4 years ago? It almost sunk him.
These are the blue-hairs. Kerry was talking to [them]. Deft. Daring. Very Clintonian.
Similarly, SBVT was not the reason the Kerry campaign tanked in August. Every Dem politico you ask will tell you (and the polls fully supprt) it was the flip-flop ads... and the salvation of John Kerry. When he did well in the debates, he destroyed the GOP campaign, and set Bush up for charges of 'being out of touch' and exaggerating for politcial purposes. Bush needed to call Kerry an exaggerator during the debate to show he could handle polysyllabic words (he had mixed results there), but also he will always accuse the opponent of what he himself is guilty of to inoculate the press to any charges. Kerry's Vietnam protest was far more potent, but SBVT blew their credibility before they played that card.
I know this interferes with pet theories and angst, but that's the way it looks to me. And it is supported by the data, including the anecdotal fact that I have heard not one word about either Mary or SBVT from my Repub friends (and I have many) but the uninformed could repeat the flip-flop charge rote, even though they knew nothing else.