Idaho is a generally a real sleeper come election time. After all it is one of the only states left where George Bush's approval rating is over 50%. However, I argue that this year will be different. I will lay out the key races to make my point.
Governor-
On the Republican side
Congressman Butch Otter was set to have a bloody face off with Lt. Governor Jim Risch but in November that was averted when Risch dropped out and left the nomination to Otter. The incumbent governor and former US Senator Dirk Kempthorne had already stated he wouldn't run for re-election and has since taken an appointment as Secretary of the Interior.
On the Democratic side
2002 nominee against Kempthorne Jerry Brady, the former publisher of the Idaho Falls Post had entered the race with minimal opposition and won his primary by a wider margin than Otter won his. In 2002, Jerry Brady held Governor Dirk Kempthorne, a popular incumbent who won the gubernatorial seat in 1998 with 68% to a mere 56-42 victory in a strong year for Republicans.
I feel this race has the potential to get very very interesting this summer as the seat is open now. But there's more.
Lt. Governor-
On the Republican side
Jim Risch who as I said before was going to run for governor decided to run for re-election as Lt. Governor.
On the Democratic side
Former Congressman Larry LaRocco who served from 1990 until he was defeated by ultra right winger Helen Chenoweth in the Republican Tsunami of 1994 has decided to make a comeback by running for the Lt. Governor position.
This may be even closer than the governor's race already and still there's more.
Idaho 1st District-
On the Republican side
This was a fun one. NRA, Club for Growth, and Right to Life backed State Representative Bill Sali won an extremely crowded primary to replace Butch Otter with 26% of the vote. Sali is hated among many in his own party due to many of his statements, such as linking breast cancer to abortion on the State House floor which caused one legislator, a breast cancer survivor to walk out crying. Many others followed her out.
On the Democratic side
Attorney Larry Grant is running an amazing grassroots and netroots based campaign. He won his primary with 70+% of the vote.
I have no doubt that come November we will win this one. Maybe that's why the Cook Political Report has downgraded this from Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Idaho for the progressive movement is a fresh oppurtunity. Let's get it going!