Our latest poll by Research 2000 out of North Dakota shows nothing surprising -- popular Gov. John Hoeven would cruise to election against any of his possible Democratic challengers (55-34 versus Heidi Heitkamp, 56-32 versus Ed Schultz).
Yet compared to last week's poll with Dorgan, Dems have only lost a few points against Hoeven, suggesting that it's general distaste for the Democrats that's driving down their numbers. Indeed, we asked favorability numbers for the two parties, and the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by just 25 percent of North Dakotans, and just 17 percent of Independents, versus 61 percent disapproval. Republicans, at 39-53, are not exactly popular, but in the battle of lesser evils, certainly in much better shape.
So Hoeven is likely to be the next senator from North Dakota, and that's starting to make some teabaggers nervous.
Organizers of Tea Parties in the state, mostly at the right wing of the Republican Party, are planning a convention next month in Grand Forks to get more organized and to make clear to Hoeven he shouldn’t get a free pass to the Republican nomination.
Randy Richards of Grand Forks said an "Ice TEA Party" will be held Feb. 13 in the Alerus Center as part of a move to bring together the dozen or more Tea Party groups around the state.
But Hoeven is in their sights.
"There is a lot of unrest about Gov. Hoeven basically being handed the keys to the GOP car, and so I wouldn’t be shocked if there is criticism of him and his spending," Richards said.
He may have done that one thing one time that violates the sacred teabag canon, rendering him unacceptable. If they can rally the troops, they could make a run at Hoeven in the primary like teabaggers have done in places like Florida and California, among others. And if forced to take positions by a challenge from the right, his statewide popularity may suffer. Much of his popularity stems from being a political chameleon. It's hard to pin him on anything. As North Decoder likes to say, he likes to "hide under his desk."
Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy apparently made the right call sticking with his House seat. He's under the 50 percent safe mark, but just marginally, and still leads big 46-24 versus Kevin Crammer, and 47-22 versus Duane Sand. In a cycle in which many red-district Democrats appear in trouble, it's nice to come across one that isn't.
And Pomeroy voted for the House health care reform bill.