Crossposted at The Next Hurrah.
A few short days ago, I posted a NY Times story about an illness outbreak in China, at first feared to be bird flu (H5N1) but found instead to be a strep bacteria infection commonly found in pigs. Except now, it seems, doubts still remain. From EpidemiCA:
Update pig disease: 31 dead, 27 critical, 152 infected
While both the Chinese government ("We have the technology and procedures to bring the disease under control") and the WHO scramble to lose themselves in confusing (or is that confused) explanations and reassurances, the body count keeps rising in the mystery disease in Sichuan; 6 more towns are added to the list, and an unconfirmed report says the disease has now spread to Yunan province as well; there is a significant change in what the officials are saying, though, reflecting what scientists worldwide have been suggesting all the time: "We can't discount the possibility there could be other bacteria, virus or something else active in here", according to the WHO spokesman far away in Manila; if they were not scared enough before, they are now.
As a matter of fact,
today's news brings this:
China's Health Minister Gao Qiang insisted on Friday a mysterious outbreak of a pig-borne disease was "under control" despite a rising death toll and number of cases, but the World Health Organisation disagreed.
...
Preliminary laboratory tests in China indicate the outbreak is caused by the streptococcus suis bacteria, which is usually spread among pigs.
The WHO has said it is baffled because if the disease is caused by the bacteria, it would be the first time it had struck so many people at one time - raising fears it had become more virulent.
The organisation said more lab tests were needed to see if other factors might be at work.
Another fear is that the
symptoms of the pig disease can appear to
resemble 1918 pandemic flu (thanks, Susan Hu, for the link). It's not that this is therefore bird flu.But one must realize that in China, even assuming best intentions, facts are not always easily accessible. It makes tracking what's happening in that part of the world a tad difficult.
As to remediation, well, that's another problem altogether. Poverty makes the theoretical hygiene steps nearly impossible to manage.
The WHO considers this a local outbreak. But emerging infectious diseases require at the very least constant surveillance by a worldwide network of epidemiologists, cooperation amongst member states (exclusion from WHO for politicial reasons is not unknown - think Taiwan), the ability to communicate risk, and the will to act. That's true in this country as well - another reason we are not ready.
More information about Pandemic flu can be found at Flu Wiki.