Not a good trend: a week ago, a PPP poll had Scott Brown up one point over Martha Coakley; this weekend, it's five points.
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 1/16-17 (1/7-9). MoE 2.8%.
Martha Coakley 46% (47)
Scott Brown 51% (48)
Findings from Tom Jensen:
-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.
-Brown's voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley's. 80% of his say they're 'very excited' about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment. But the likely electorate now reports having voted for Barack Obama by 19 points, up from 16 a week ago, and a much smaller drop from his 26 point victory in the state than was seen in Virginia.
-Those planning to turn out continue to be skeptical of the Democratic health care plan, saying they oppose it by a 48/40 margin.
-Coakley's favorability dropped from 50% to 44% after a week filled with perceived missteps. Brown's negatives went up a lot but his positives only actually went from 57% to 56%, an indication that attacks against him may have been most effective with voters already planning to support Coakley but ambivalent toward Brown.
The only thing we can do is GOTV, GOTV, GOTV.