with low expectations for tomorrow. As the Rasmussen people say
today: "Last night's single night tracking suggested a possible move back in the Presidents's dirction." It's the
3-night nature of the poll that permits them to say that. The fact that for the past two days the poll was essentially unchanged means that the single night pollings of March 25 and 24 were essentially the same as the single nights of March 22 and 21, the nights they replaced.
Only on the night of March 23 was Kerry ahead, and since that one night had to balance two Bush nights, He was
way ahead that night. Some 20 points (!) since the the 5 point margin in the 3-night poll reported on March 24 was the 3-night
average of the 3 margins of 3 nights. Close to (20-2-3)/3 = 5.
My prediction for tomorrow: presuming that the Demo ex-prez, candidate, bash last night in D.C. plus Kerry's economic plan today will result in a modest Kerry margin in tonight's single-night polling, say: 8 points. Thus (8-2-3)/3 = 1 and Rasmussen will report tomorrow Kerry46-Bush45.