For a special election in January in Massachusetts, this is encouraging, anecdotal and preliminary, but still. A TPM reader:
By noon, more than 55,000 voters cast their ballots in Boston - up from an estimate of 24,000 during the December primary. That puts Boston on pace to produce more than 150,000 votes. In raw votes, if this keeps up, that'll be slightly more than the 2002 or 2006 state elections, but well below presidential years. (The surge in enrollments in '08 means that a slight increase in the number of voters would still be a significantly lower percentage.)
It's also above the election eve forecasts. The Secretary of State predicated roughly double the December turnout - so far, Boston is actually up 130%. And with lines discouraging voters at some precincts and a snowy morning, coupled with much more intensive GOTV efforts, there are some indications that turnout may actually tilt toward the afternoon.
It's too soon for optimism. Turnout had to exceed projections for Coakley to have any chance. Well, it has - so she's still in the running. But we're going to need more numbers before we can guess whether she'll pull it out.
And from a few hours ago:
A Democratic operative tells me that Dems are taking a bit of comfort from the fact that turnout is higher than they expected in Boston, which obviously would be Martha Coakley’s best hope of pulling out a victory.
"We’re hitting our targets and we’re feeling pretty good," the operative says.
That said, the operative also concedes reports are coming in of high turnout across the state in precincts outside of Boston. One key question is what turnout is looking like on the Democratic Irish Catholic South Shore, in towns like Braintree and Weymouth, Dem strongholds where Obama barely eeked out victories. Brown has aggressively targeted these voters.
Local media is sounding the same theme. Depsite the bad weather, folks are voting.
From WBZ-TV in Boston:
In contrast to the light turnout for the party primaries last month, there are already signs of a heavy turnout. In the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's district in Barnstable, they're estimating a 60-percent turnout by the end of the day.
For you Bay-staters, what are you seeing on the ground? And for the rest of you, have you made your calls? Polls are open for several more hours. Keep on pushing.