The Wrap is so full today that I actually started writing it in August. Well, no...not really...but there are a sextet of new polls, and an even bigger pile of campaign stories lying around. Set aside the next hour or so, because it's time for the Tuesday edition of the Wrap...
IL-Gov: PPP Confirms That The Hynes Surge Is Complete
For the first time, a major independent pollster has Illinois Governor Pat Quinn trailing in his bid for re-election. The pollster is PPP (PDF File), and the prolific pollster has state Comptroller Dan Hynes leading the incumbent by a single point (41-40), confirming that the race now is, indeed, a coinflip. An even bigger coinflip? How about the eye-popping result on the GOP side, where just eight points separates the current leader (state legislator Kirk Dillard) from the candidate in 5th place. Dillard leads with just 19% of the vote.
UT-Sen: Embattled Bennett Still On His Feet, According to M-D
This poll is a little dusty (about a week old), but worth taking a look at: the Mason-Dixon poll which had GOP Gov. Gary Herbert out in front over the weekend also has Senate numbers to take a look at. Incumbent Republican Governor Bob Bennett, who is under a lot of heat within his own party, has solid leads over either generic GOP primary opposition (46-27) or generic Democratic general election opposition (53-26). Bennett drew another Republican primary challenger, by the way, as businessman Christopher Stout is joining a growing field to challenge the third-term Senator.
DE-Sen: Rasmussen Says Post-Biden Senate Race Is No Contest
Interesting numbers today from the team at Rasmussen Reports, as it pretty strongly contradicts some older numbers that were thrown out here on DK a few months back. Rasmussen claims that likely Republican nominee Mike Castle (the longtime Congressman there) will blast potential Democratic challenger Chris Coons by nearly thirty points (56-27). Back in October, DK/R2K polled this race, and we found Coons trailing Castle by a significantly smaller margin (51-39). It would be interesting to see a third pollster come in, to see where they land.
AZ-Gov: Brewer Might Survive GOP Primary, According to Ras
After Rasmussen pointed out yesterday that GOP state treasurer Dean Martin was a far more formidable general election candidate for the Republicans than incumbent Governor Jan Brewer, one might have assumed that Martin, who seems to be challenging Brewer to her right, would have a solid GOP primary lead. Such an assumption would be in error, as Rasmussen polled that primary and found it to be extremely close. Martin is in front, but by just two points (31-29), with a handful of GOP aspirants back in single digits.
NH-Sen: Ayotte Flogs Internal Showing Her Safe...In Primary
In a sign that her campaign is well aware of the possiblity that her candidacy could get teabagged, Granite State GOP establishment pick Kelly Ayotte released an internal poll showing her well out in front of the primary field. The poll, done by the Tarrance Group, has Ayotte pacing the field with 43% of the vote, well ahead of right-wing darling Ovide Lamontagne, who trails with 11% of the vote. Self-financer Bill Binnie sits in third, with just 5% of the vote. Ayotte, the state Attorney General, has long been the insider's choice to replace outgoing GOP Senator Judd Gregg, but Lamontagne has been applauded by several right-wing denizens (including radio host Laura Ingraham) for being a more conservative choice for the office.
PA-15: Another GOP Internal Poll Says Hot Race in PA Not So Hot
The Tarrance Group has apparently had a full dance card lately. In addition to conducting the Ayotte poll in New Hampshire, they also put together a poll for fourth-term incumbent Charlie Dent in PA-15 that has him well ahead of his Democratic challenger, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan (53-27). Callahan is easily one of the more impressive recruits for the DCCC this cycle, and apparently outraised the incumbent during the 4th and final quarter of 2009.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- IN-Sen: It has been pretty rare, as of late, for the GOP to suffer a recruiting failure. That said, they had a painful one today. Just one day after a Rasmussen poll showed him with a narrow lead over second-term Democratic incumbent Evan Bayh, Congressman Mike Pence declined to run for the Senate in 2010, instead declaring his desire to seek re-election to the House. His stated reason was based on his confidence that the Republicans can reclaim the House after this cycle. But others have stated that his aspirations might be a little higher, like a 2012 presidential bid. Hard to see where a relatively unknown Congressman finds presidential oxygen, of course, but this is a major dodged bullet for Bayh, who had unimpressive leads over the other potential GOP candidates in the field.
- AR-Sen: On Monday evening, a tweet from Blanche Lincoln's campaign about a press conference set for Tuesday set into motion a brief flurry of activity, as everyone assumed that a retirement announcement was imminent. As it turned out, it was merely a fundraising announcement ($ 1.3 mil for the quarter). The irony was that several Democrats were probably disappointed to hear that it wasn't a retirement announcement. At least, that's the gist of a hot rumor which has been making the rounds. The short version: there are some prominent Dems that would like to see Lincoln move aside so that a more electable Dem can run in her place. In that vein, there is already a movement in place to draft state Lt. Governor Bill Halter.
- CT-Sen (2012): This is only in the barest stages of rumor, but it is nonetheless kind of fun to contemplate. Connecticut's Dennis House blogged today that an interesting name might be on the table in terms of Democratic challengers to Joe Lieberman in 2012: Kennedy. Ted Kennedy Jr. does live in Connecticut, and has harbored some political aspirations of his own. Another name that has been making the rounds more prominently, however, is Congressman Chris Murphy. Assuming he can earn re-election this year, Murphy would have to be a bettor's favorite to take on Lieberman in 2012. A DK/R2K poll taken last week had Murphy wiping the floor with Lieberman by double digits.
- KS-Gov: If you have wondered why Kansas Democrats are waiting with some level of anxiety for state Senator Tom Holland to pull the trigger on a gubernatorial bid, this might be the reason why. The two guys already in the field, Marty Mork and Herbert West III, are both political novices. Mork's campaign is centered, in part, on somehow getting Disney to build a theme park in Kansas. West, meanwhile, has hit on one of the more intriguing campaign slogans in our era: "Kansas Bites." His goal, presumably, is to make sure it no longer bites should he be elected.
- WI-Sen: When a candidate's appeal is, in part, on his ability to self-fund and his business reputation, headlines like the ones currently afflicting Wisconsin Republican Terrence Wall are not going to be helpful. It turns out that Wall, a wealthy real estate developer, paid no state income taxes in Wisconsin in nine out of ten years ranging from 1999 to 2008. Wall's campaign team tried to explain it away by saying that their man "had no personal tax liability during the years in question."
- MI-Gov: For those who were getting ready to affix the "Stupak for Governor" stickers on the backs of their cars, some sad news. After publicly flirting with the race a few weeks back, and then walking it back almost immediately, Congressman Bart Stupak made it official that he would not be a candidate for Governor of Michigan this year. Instead, he will seek re-election to the House.
- TN-Gov: It would have been the strangest party switch since Marty Martinez in 2000 (look it up!), but apparently we have nothing to fear. Tennessee's Democratic Governor, Phil Bredesen, is staying a Democrat. It would have been peculiar, to say the least, for a term-limited Governor to switch parties in the final months of his tenure.
- AR-01: The day after Marion Berry created another potentially vulnerable Democratic open seat, Swing State Project diarist ARDem surveys the field, explaining why the celebrations from the GOP about this open seat might be premature, and handicapping the Democratic field. Definitely worth a read.
- PA-10: The second major GOP challenger to sophomore Rep. Chris Carney is now a virtual lock: former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino. Marino joins county commissioner Malcolm Derk in the GOP field to challenge Carney in this reasonably tough district.
- THE MONEY CHASE: The big money story today came from Florida, where Charlie Crist (at around two million) just edged Marco Rubio ($ 1.7 million) in the fundraising chase. There were a pair of other interesting reports released today, however. In Kansas, Democrat Raj Goyle still looks to be formidable in the open seat in KS-04, having raised just over a quarter of a million bucks. Out in California, Republican Elizabeth Emken did a little better than that (over $ 300K), but that number is tempered substantially by the fact that two-thirds of it was self-funded. The filing deadline for the 4th quarter/year end reports will be this Sunday.