Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/25/2010-1/28/2010. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
---|
PRESIDENT OBAMA | 55 (54) | 43 (44) | +2 |
| | | |
PELOSI: | 39 (40) | 51 (50) | -2 |
REID: | 27 (28) | 63 (62) | -2 |
McCONNELL: | 21 (22) | 61 (61) | -1 |
BOEHNER: | 20 (21) | 61 (60) | -2 |
| | | |
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: | 37 (38) | 59 (58) | -2 |
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: | 21 (21) | 63 (62) | -1 |
| | | |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 38 (39) | 57 (56) | -2 |
REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 33 (34) | 59 (58) | -2 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
Not to confuse folks, but keep in mind as you peruse these numbers that the first post-SOTU tracking poll really isn't much of a post-SOTU poll. The strong majority of the interviews were conducted before Obama gave the address on Wednesday evening, and therefore it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions from this week's tracker. To get the full impact of the SOTU, next week's tracker will likely be far more instructive in understanding the impact of the address, if any.
Indeed, this week's edition of the tracker is actually pretty quiet. With the exception of Obama, who rebounded slightly this week, everyone shed a point or two this week. For the Democrats, that is the continuation of a slide that has been going on for some time now. For the GOP, that is merely the relinquishing of gains that have been made in recent weeks.
As I noted yesterday, the real stat to watch in the polls following the State of the Union is not job approval or favorability numbers.
The bigger question for Democrats, post-address, is whether or not there will be any appreciable increase in voter intensity. Since most of this poll was conducted pre-ad dress, this week's tracking poll is probably a good baseline for measuring changes. Democrats are near their basement on this question, with 52% certain or likely to vote, while 46% say that they are either unlikely to vote or are already planning not to vote. Meanwhile, Republicans are still willing to crawl on their lips over busted glass to vote, with 80% certain or likely to vote.
The Republicans, for the second week in a row, continued to lead in the DK/R2K variation of the generic ballot test. The margin is currently two points (39-37), propelled in part by the thirteen-point lead that the GOP currently enjoys among Independent voters.
Looking inside the ballot numbers, here is one dramatic shift that Democrats want to keep an eye on. Among one of the fastest growing demographic groups, Latino voters, the Democratic edge has faded palpably. In the first incarnation of this ballot test during this past May, Democrats held a thirty-two point lead among Latinos (57-25). This week, the Democratic edge among Latino voters is down to just thirteen points (48-35). Given that future Democratic political strength in key states (California and Texas come immediately to mind) is predicated on strength among this particular demographic, this is something that might merit some degree of attention among Dems.