Can anybody tell me anything about the GOP polling outfit strategic vision? They have been releasing a series of what - to me - seem like outlier polls of Washington State (ie recent poll with Kerry up only 46 to 45, poll from several weeks ago with Kerry up only 48 to 46). Compare this to the rest of the state polls by non-partisan outfits: Rasmussen, Kerry 52, Bush 44; SUSA, Kerry 51, Bush 46; Elway (probably an outlier in the other direction), Kerry 52, Bush 38; ARG, Kerry 52, Bush 44. And so on. In other words, this state is probably not close, and Kerry will win by at least 6 or 7% (my personal goal is for him to win by 10%, which would in some ways make up for me losing the election as a whole).
Does anybody know what SV's track record is? What have their polls looked like in other states this cycle? I can't seem to find their website.
Why do they continue to get reported as a serious outfit? A bit of pet peave, but it really bothers me that websites like electoral-vote.com just throw up this number as if it is as valid as any other.
I want it to be the case that on election day - whether or not Bush is reelected - that the meme that Washington is a swing state is finally destroyed when Kerry beats Bush here 54 to 45 (which is my projection of the final vote in WA). (And before you jump on me, I am spending each Saturday between now and the election making sure that it is so.)