We apologize for this being two days late, but hopefully not a dollar short :-/.
Same as last time, I'll multitask with the usual Arctic Sea Ice diary, with Climate Change news links appearing afterward.
News From the Arctic: September 2010 Summary
The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) issued its summary of the mean September sea ice for 2010, including a discussion of the 2010 sea ice minimum and implications for the future of Arctic sea ice. Below you'll find the graphic that tells the story over the past 32 years.
More below the fold, then the Climate Change News Roundup.
Summary of September 2010 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent averaged 4.90 million km2,the third lowest mean extent over the 32-year satellite record. This was 69.6% of the 1979-2000 mean value of 7.04 million km2.
The Arctic sea ice extent minimum usually takes place in September, as the Sun sets late in the month and the long polar night begins. This year was no exception, with a minimum of 4.60 million km2 occurring on 19 September 2010. Shortly thereafter, refreeze of the Arctic Ocean began apace, with a sea ice extent of 5.44 million km2 by 1 October. Comparisons to prior years 2005 and 2007 through 2010, with the 1979-2000 mean and 95% confidence interval (in shading) are shown below. Every year in this series shows sea ice extent has been well-below normal, including 2006 which isn't shown.
There is nothing in the time series of September sea ice extent nor in the comparisons just above to indicate that the general downward trend in Arctic sea ice is reversing direction. In fact, below is a graphic of the September 2010 sea ice age compared to the age of sea ice at the March 2010 maximum, and over the last 30 Septembers since 1981.
For the NSIDC's take on the implications for future trends of Arctic sea ice age extent, I've quoted the press release that accompanied the September 2010 mean Arctic sea ice data below.
... Older ice tends to be thicker than younger, one- or two-year-old ice. Last winter, the wind patterns associated with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation transported a great deal of multiyear ice from the coast of the Canadian Arctic into the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Scientists speculated that much of this ice, some five years or older, would survive the summer melt period. Instead, it mostly melted away. At the end of the summer 2010, under 15% of the ice remaining the Arctic was more than two years old, compared to 50 to 60% during the 1980s. There is virtually none of the oldest (at least five years old) ice remaining in the Arctic (less than 60,000 square kilometers [23,000 square miles] compared to 2 million square kilometers [722,000 square miles] during the 1980s).
Whether younger multiyear ice (two or three years old) in the Arctic Ocean will continue to age and thicken depends on two things: first, how much of that ice stays in the Arctic instead of exiting into the North Atlantic through Fram Strait; and second, whether the ice survives its transit across the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas or instead melts away.
We're now at about 6.39 million km2 of Arctic sea ice extent; much of which is new ice. As the NSIDC says, what happens in the future depends on weather patterns and the survival of multiyear ice. We'll see what happens next. I'll be reporting on sea ice as it increases when monthly summaries from the NSIDC are issued, either the first or second weekend of the next month.
Now for the Climate News Links.
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BP & FOSSIL FOOLISH NEWS
- Lawyers Compete for Big Payoff in BP Oil Spill Case.
Over 100 lawyers have applied to represent clients in the BP case ... including David Boies (Bush v. Gore, Prop 8 in CA) and Mike Espy (Ag. Sec'y under Bill Clinton). This will likely be a multi-billion dollar settlement once done, with 15% going to the lawyers, over and above the usual 30% cut for doing civil suits. That's beaucoup bucks, as they'd say in New Orleans.
- Gulf restoration plan should be home-grown, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson says.
After President Obama set up a Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Task Force via executive order, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, the task force chair, said that it's up to Gulf Coast residents to set the agenda.
- Obama Administration Lifts Drilling Moratorium.
Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar announced the ending of the moratorium on deepwater drilling, based on a report from Director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Michael R. Bromwich. The BOEMRE was formed as a new regulatory body in response to both the BP Oil Blowout and the regulatory failure of its predecessor regulatory body.
Interestingly, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D - Oil), who had placed a hold on the nomination of Jacob "Jack" Lew to be the director of the Office of Management and Budget, still will not release his nomination. She insists on
...an action plan to get the entire industry in the Gulf of Mexico back to work. This means that the administration must continue to accelerate the granting of permits in shallow and deep water, and provide greater certainty about the rules and regulations industry must meet. I strongly believe that we can do this safely and swiftly."
Instead of releasing her hold, which has blocked a vote on Lew, Landrieu said, "I will take this time to look closely at how Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement is handling the issuing of permits and whether or not drilling activity in both shallow and deep water is resuming."
She's taking the same position as Sen. David Vitter (R - Depends) on the issue. Also Mitch Landrieu weight in:
"We are pleased the Administration has put new safety and spill response protocols in place. We in Louisiana know that you can drill safely. (ed.: Have we heard this somewhere before? HmmMMMM?!?!?!) We encourage President Obama and the Interior Department to move expeditiously to get our residents back to work on both shallow-water and deepwater drilling."
CLIMATE CHANGE & ENERGY
- Energy Collective: America's Shame.
A dirge on our lack of action on renewable energy and reduction of carbon emissions. This blog writer doesn't believe we'll ever get passed what is necessary to prevent a long-term climate catastrophe. I'm inclined, unfortunately, to agree.
- Denmark Aims to be Fossil Fuel Energy Free by 2050.
The report describes how Denmark can become independent of fossil fuels and, at the same time, meet the target of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%-95% from 1990 levels. There are 40 specific initiatives that would facilitate Denmark reaching these goals, including
- increasing electricity usage from 20% to 40-70% of total energy requirements.
- intelligent energy grids
- extensive use of biofuels
- halving the energy required for home heating
- Wisconsin Office of Energy Independence.
Here's something interesting I found with teh Google. A state department of energy independence administering Federal Grants for things like biomass, home winterization and energy efficiency, environmental engineering and sustainability, and the like.
- Google Joins Offshore Electric Transmission Venture
While it will take at least a decade to complete, Google has invested in the Atlantic Wind Connection. This is to be an underground electrical cable connecting wind turbines off the mid-Atlantic to New England coast, that once finished should be able to power 1.9 million homes.
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY/POLITICS
- Royal Society Launches Climate Change Guide for the Common Man.
The Royal Society has a full name: The Royal Society of London for the Improvement of Natural Knowledge. It will have been in existence for 350 years next month, and has often been in the forefront of science. Essentially, they are the U.K. version of our Academy of Sciences. The climate change guide explains the science behind climate change to those without a science background. Discussion of policy implications, prominent in previous publications from the Royal Academy, is avoided to keep things simple.
- Population Change: Another Big Influence on Climate Change.
From the article itself, in Science Daily:
It is estimated that global population could rise by more than three billion people, with most of that increase occurring in urban areas. The study showed that a slowing of that population growth could contribute to significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. By 2050, the researchers found that if population followed one of the slower growth paths foreseen as plausible by demographers at the United Nations, it could provide 16 to 29 percent of the emission reductions thought necessary to keep global temperatures from causing serious impacts. The effect of slower population growth on greenhouse gas emissions would be even larger by the end of the century.
Who will dare politically, to bring up the population issue and its connection to global warming?
- Climate Change Talks Open in China on 4 October.
The international search for a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol continued in China, in preparation for a more significant meeting of U.N. representatives in December to be held in Cancun. The goal of this set of meetings, according to the article:
With a single climate package deal unlikely, the focus has turned to finding areas of agreement on essential components, including financing and transfer of clean technology and ways of reducing deforestation.
Much of what needs to happen in Tianjin is the less tangible task of restoring trust and some momentum in order to "set the stage for what's realistically possible in Cancun," said Jake Schmidt, International Climate Policy Director for the U.S.-based Natural Resources Defence Council.
WATER & NATURAL RESOURCES
GREEN JOBS & ECONOMIC IMPACTS
- Global Warming Work Party on 10/10/10.
Tweets from such far-flung places as Vermont and Azerbaijan described the largest day of climate action in history. Tweets were coming in at about 7 per minute during much of the day. Reading this article gave me a glimmer of hope, that is ... if it's not going to be too little, too late once the political will for change takes hold :-/.